NCAAF Betting Arbitrage: Tar Heels vs Huskies (ROI: 13.7%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for an upcoming NCAA Football (NCAAF) game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the UConn Huskies. The event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 11:06 am. This analysis will examine the details of the bets involved, calculate potential returns, and discuss factors to consider regarding this potential arbitrage in sports betting.
Analysis of the Bets
Two bets have been identified from different bookmakers on the same game and market:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 34.5 Points
- Odds: +750 (Decimal Odds: 8.50)
- Stake: $133.76
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 34.5 Points
- Odds: -320 (Decimal Odds: 1.3125)
- Stake: $866.24
Total Stake Invested: $1,000 ($133.76 + $866.24)
The potential returns from each bet are calculated as follows:
Bet 1 Potential Return: $133.76 × 8.50 = $1,136.96
Bet 2 Potential Return: $866.24 × 1.3125 = $1,136.95
Note: The slight difference in returns is due to rounding; they are effectively equal.
Guaranteed Profit Calculation:
Total Potential Return: Approximately $1,136.96 regardless of the game's outcome.
Guaranteed Profit: $1,136.96 - $1,000 = $136.96
Profit Percentage: ($136.96 / $1,000) × 100% = 13.696%
Discussion of Implications
This scenario suggests a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting where opposing bets cover all possible outcomes of the total game score:
- Over 34.5 Points: The combined score is 35 points or more.
- Under 34.5 Points: The combined score is 34 points or fewer.
Because these outcomes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, they cover all possible results of the game's total score. The implied probabilities from the odds are:
- Under 34.5 (Odds 8.50): Implied Probability ≈ 11.76%
- Over 34.5 (Odds 1.3125): Implied Probability ≈ 76.19%
Total Implied Probability: 11.76% + 76.19% = 87.95%
The total implied probability being less than 100% indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Considerations and Potential Risks
While the calculations suggest a positive return, several factors should be carefully considered:
1. Market Consistency: Ensure both bets are on the same market and conditions, including whether overtime counts towards the total points.
2. Bookmaker Terms: Review the terms and conditions of both bookmakers, especially regarding palpable errors, cancellation policies, and rules about arbitrage betting.
3. Event Risks: The event is scheduled over a year in advance, increasing the risk of event changes, cancellations, or significant team alterations that could affect bet validity.
4. Financial Implications: Funds will be tied up for a prolonged period, which could impact liquidity and opportunity cost.
5. Account Management: Large or atypical bets may trigger account scrutiny or limitations by the bookmakers.
Conclusion
The identified bets present a calculated arbitrage opportunity in sports betting with a projected profit of approximately $136.96 on a $1,000 investment. This arises from the differing odds provided by two bookmakers on the same market and outcome. However, several factors, including bookmaker policies, event risks, and financial considerations, should be thoroughly evaluated. The sports betting market can be complex, and due diligence is essential before engaging in arbitrage betting opportunities.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully assess their circumstances and consult with professional advisors before making any decisions. No guarantees are made regarding the accuracy of this information or the outcomes of any bets placed based on this analysis.