NCAAF Arbitrage: Profit from Totals Mismatch (ROI: 42.4%)

Introduction

An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAAF game between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves placing two opposing bets on the total points scored in the game, taking advantage of differing odds offered by two bookmakers.

Analysis

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Totals
• Outcome: Over 53.5 points
• Odds: +630
• Stake: $195.08

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Totals
• Outcome: Under 53.5 points
• Odds: -130
• Stake: $804.92

The total stake across both bets is $1,000. The objective is to evaluate whether this setup constitutes a valid arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting.

Potential Returns

Converting Odds to Decimal Format:

Bet 1 (Odds +630):

Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1 = (630 / 100) + 1 = 7.3

Bet 2 (Odds -130):

Decimal Odds = (100 / |-130|) + 1 = (100 / 130) + 1 ≈ 1.7692

Calculating Potential Payouts:

If the total points are over 53.5 (Bet 1 wins):

• Bet 1 Payout: $195.08 × 7.3 = $1,424.084
• Bet 2 Loss: $804.92 (stake lost)
• Net Profit: $1,424.084 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $424.084

If the total points are under 53.5 (Bet 2 wins):

• Bet 2 Payout: $804.92 × 1.7692 ≈ $1,424.084
• Bet 1 Loss: $195.08 (stake lost)
• Net Profit: $1,424.084 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $424.084

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $424.08 on a $1,000 total stake, representing a 42.4% return on investment.

Discussion

This arbitrage betting opportunity arises due to the significant discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers for the same total points line of 53.5. The lower combined implied probability indicates the potential for a profitable arbitrage.

Implied Probabilities:

Bet 1 (Odds +630):

Implied Probability = 100 / (American Odds + 100) = 100 / (630 + 100) ≈ 13.70%

Bet 2 (Odds -130):

Implied Probability = |-130| / (|-130| + 100) = 130 / (130 + 100) ≈ 56.52%

Total Implied Probability: 13.70% + 56.52% = 70.22%

Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.

Considerations:

• Odds Verification: The unusually high odds for the over 53.5 points market may indicate a potential error or mispricing.
• Bookmaker Policies: Terms and conditions regarding palpable errors could affect the validity of the bet.
• Market Consistency: Ensuring both bets are on the exact same market conditions is crucial.
• Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits or payout caps on certain markets.
• Timing: Odds in sports betting can change rapidly, affecting the arbitrage opportunity.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that, if the odds are accurate and the bets are accepted as placed, there is a potential for a profitable arbitrage opportunity with a significant return on investment. However, it is important to approach this scenario with caution due to possible risks such as odds errors or bookmaker policy implications.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions before engaging in any betting activities.