NCAAF Arbitrage: Nebraska vs Boston College December 2024 (ROI: 65.8%)
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified for the upcoming National Collegiate Athletic Association Football (NCAAF) game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Boston College Eagles, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 12:06 PM. This memo provides an objective analysis of the bets involved, focusing on their potential profitability within the sports betting market.
Analysis
The arbitrage opportunity arises from placing two opposing bets on the same market with different bookmakers, leveraging the discrepancies in odds.
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 29.5 points
- Odds: +194
- Stake: $563.80
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 29.5 points
- Odds: +280
- Stake: $436.20
The total combined stake is $1,000. The betting line is set at 29.5 points, eliminating the possibility of a draw; the total score will definitively be over or under this line.
Discussion
To evaluate the potential outcomes, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
Bet 1 Decimal Odds (+194): (194/100) + 1 = 2.94
Bet 2 Decimal Odds (+280): (280/100) + 1 = 3.80
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 29.5
- Bet 1 Wins: $563.80 x 2.94 = $1,657.57
- Profit from Bet 1: $1,093.77 ($1,657.57 - $563.80)
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss of $436.20
- Net Profit: $657.57 ($1,657.57 - $1,000)
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 29.5
- Bet 2 Wins: $436.20 x 3.80 = $1,657.56
- Profit from Bet 2: $1,221.36 ($1,657.56 - $436.20)
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss of $563.80
- Net Profit: $657.56 ($1,657.56 - $1,000)
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $657.56, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity with a positive return regardless of the game's outcome.
Theoretical Hold Calculation
Assessing the combined implied probability helps determine the validity of the arbitrage:
- Implied Probability of Bet 1: 100 / (194 + 100) = 34.01%
- Implied Probability of Bet 2: 100 / (280 + 100) = 26.32%
- Combined Implied Probability: 34.01% + 26.32% = 60.33%
A combined implied probability below 100% suggests a theoretical arbitrage opportunity exists.
Considerations
- Market Consistency: It's important to ensure both bets are on the same market with identical terms, including overtime rules and market definitions.
- Bookmaker Policies: Reviewing the terms and conditions of both FanDuel and DraftKings is crucial, particularly regarding voided bets, cancellations, or palpable errors.
- Bet Acceptance: Confirming that both bets are fully accepted without modifications or limitations helps mitigate the risk of one bet not standing.
- Stake Limits and Payout Caps: Be aware of any maximum stake limits or payout caps that may affect the bets.
- Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly; verifying the odds at the time of placing the bets is essential.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that, based on the provided data, there is a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in this NCAAF game. By capitalizing on the differing odds offered by two bookmakers in the sports betting market, there is a calculated net profit possible irrespective of the final score. However, careful consideration of bookmaker terms, market conditions, and potential risks is essential to ensure the validity and profitability of the bets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Sports betting involves financial risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and exercise caution. Always ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.