NCAAF Arbitrage: NC State vs East Carolina Opportunity (ROI: 77.2%)
Arbitrage opportunity in NC State vs. East Carolina on Dec 28, 2024. Bet $947.88 on ECU at -115 odds, $52.12 on NC State at +3300. Potential net profit of around $772, but unusual odds disparity suggests possible bookmaker error or mispricing risks.
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAAF game between the NC State Wolfpack and the East Carolina Pirates scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of this sports betting scenario to assess its viability as an arbitrage bet.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 5:50 PM
- League: NCAAF (College Football)
- Teams: NC State Wolfpack (Home) vs. East Carolina Pirates (Away)
Betting Markets and Odds:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: East Carolina Pirates
- Odds: -115
- Stake: $947.88
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Selection: NC State Wolfpack
- Odds: +3300
- Stake: $52.12
Calculating Potential Returns:
- Bet 1 (East Carolina Pirates at -115):
Potential Profit = (Stake / |Odds|) × 100 = ($947.88 / 115) × 100 ≈ $824.25
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $947.88 + $824.25 ≈ $1,772.13
- Bet 2 (NC State Wolfpack at +3300):
Potential Profit = (Stake × Odds) / 100 = ($52.12 × 3300) / 100 ≈ $1,719.96
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $52.12 + $1,719.96 ≈ $1,772.08
Total Stakes: $947.88 + $52.12 = $1,000
Net Profit (Either Outcome): Approximately $772
Discussion
This arbitrage betting scenario suggests a guaranteed profit of approximately $772 regardless of the game's outcome, exploiting the discrepancy between the odds offered by two bookmakers. However, several factors merit careful consideration:
1. Unusual Odds Disparity: The odds of +3300 on NC State Wolfpack are significantly higher than typical for a moneyline market in college football. Such a disparity may indicate a potential error or mispricing by the bookmaker.
2. Potential Mispricing or Error: Bookmakers reserve the right to void bets placed on odds that were inaccurately posted. If the +3300 odds are a mistake, the bet may be voided, nullifying the arbitrage opportunity.
3. Maximum Bet Limits: High odds often come with low maximum stakes to limit the bookmaker's exposure. The acceptance of a $52.12 stake at +3300 odds may be unusual and could be subject to adjustment.
4. Market Consistency: Ensuring both bets are on the same market with identical rules is critical. Differences in terms, such as how overtime is handled, may affect the outcome.
5. Event Timing and Uncertainty: The game is over a year away, introducing risks such as event cancellation, date changes, or roster adjustments that could impact the bets.
6. Regulatory Considerations: Compliance with local laws and regulations regarding sports betting and arbitrage betting should be verified. There may also be tax implications for the potential winnings.
Conclusion
While the calculations present a seemingly profitable arbitrage betting opportunity in this sports betting scenario, several uncertainties and risks could affect the actual outcome. The significant odds disparity, potential bookmaker errors, market inconsistencies, and the long duration until the event all contribute to potential complications. A thorough evaluation of these factors is essential to determine the viability of the arbitrage bet.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and it's important to conduct independent research and consider consulting professionals before making any betting decisions.