NCAAF Arbitrage: Navy vs. Oklahoma Points Betting

Introduction

In this live update, we examine a recently identified potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAAF game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners, scheduled for December 27, 2024. This sports betting analysis aims to provide an objective overview of the betting odds across different bookmakers, highlighting the possibility of a risk-free profit.

Analysis

The betting markets at DraftKings and FanDuel present differing odds for the total points scored in the game.

At DraftKings:

• Market: Totals
• Bet: Under 48.5 points
• Odds: -115 (American odds)
• Stake: $547.27

At FanDuel:

• Market: Alternate Totals
• Bet: Over 48.5 points
• Odds: +126 (American odds)
• Stake: $452.73

Total Investment: $1,000

To understand the potential returns, we convert the American odds to decimal odds:

For DraftKings:

• Decimal Odds: 1 + (100 ÷ 115) = 1.8696
• Potential Return: $547.27 × 1.8696 = $1,022.29

For FanDuel:

• Decimal Odds: 1 + (126 ÷ 100) = 2.26
• Potential Return: $452.73 × 2.26 = $1,023.17

Discussion

There are two possible outcomes for the total points scored in the game:

1. Total Points Under 48.5:

• DraftKings bet wins; FanDuel bet loses.
• Net Profit: $1,022.29 (return from DraftKings) - $1,000 (total stakes) = $22.29

2. Total Points Over 48.5:

• FanDuel bet wins; DraftKings bet loses.
• Net Profit: $1,023.17 (return from FanDuel) - $1,000 (total stakes) = $23.17

In both scenarios, a profit between $22 and $23 is realized, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

However, it is important to consider potential risks:

• Bet Settlement Rules: Ensure both bookmakers include overtime in their total points markets.
• Stake Limits and Market Restrictions: Bookmakers may impose limits affecting the ability to place the desired stakes.
• Timing and Line Movements: Odds can change rapidly; simultaneous placement of bets is crucial.
• Legality: Verify that such betting activities are legal in your jurisdiction.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the Navy vs. Oklahoma game, with a chance to secure a small profit regardless of the game's outcome. Careful consideration of bookmaker rules and sports betting market conditions is essential to mitigate risks.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice, and no guarantees are made regarding the outcome. Always gamble responsibly and ensure compliance with the laws applicable in your area.