NCAAB Odds Disparity: Spartans vs Rams Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 50.5%)

To our valued readers keen on exploring opportunities in sports betting and arbitrage betting, we bring a fresh analysis of a recently identified potential arbitrage bet. This memo aims to objectively dissect the details and implications of the bet for educational purposes.

Event Overview

Event Date: January 1, 2025, at 12:05 AM
Sport: College Basketball (NCAAB)
Matchup: San José State Spartans vs. Colorado State Rams

Betting Details

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Moneyline (Win/Loss)
Selection: Colorado State Rams to win
Odds: -172 (American odds)
Stake: $951.46

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Market: Moneyline (Win/Loss)
Selection: San José State Spartans to win
Odds: +3000 (American odds)
Stake: $48.54

Analytical Breakdown

1. Conversion of Odds:
To assess the potential returns, we first convert the American odds to decimal odds.

For Bet 1 (-172):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / |-172|) = 1 + (100 / 172) ≈ 1.581

For Bet 2 (+3000):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (3000 / 100) = 1 + 30 = 31.00

2. Potential Returns:
If Colorado State Rams win:
Return from Bet 1 = $951.46 × 1.581 ≈ $1,504.74
Loss from Bet 2 = -$48.54
Net Profit ≈ $1,504.74 - $951.46 - $48.54 ≈ $504.74

If San José State Spartans win:
Return from Bet 2 = $48.54 × 31.00 = $1,504.74
Loss from Bet 1 = -$951.46
Net Profit ≈ $1,504.74 - $48.54 - $951.46 ≈ $504.74

3. Implied Probabilities:
For Bet 1:
Implied Probability = |-172| / (|-172| + 100) = 172 / (172 + 100) ≈ 63.24%

For Bet 2:
Implied Probability = 100 / (3000 + 100) = 100 / 3100 ≈ 3.23%

Total Implied Probability = 63.24% + 3.23% ≈ 66.47%

4. Arbitrage Assessment:
The total implied probability is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity. The calculations suggest a profit of approximately $504.74 regardless of the outcome.

Discussion of Potential Outcomes

The mathematical analysis highlights a scenario where, theoretically, a bettor could secure a profit irrespective of the game's result. This is due to the disparity in odds provided by two different bookmakers, which is the cornerstone of arbitrage betting.

However, several factors need consideration:

1. Unusually High Odds:
The odds of +3000 for the San José State Spartans are significantly higher than typical for a moneyline bet in college basketball. This could indicate a potential error on the bookmaker's part.

2. Bookmaker Policies:
Most bookmakers have terms that allow them to void bets placed on erroneous odds. If BetMGM identifies the +3000 odds as a mistake, they may cancel Bet 2, leaving the bettor exposed with only Bet 1 active.

3. Stake Limitations:
Bookmakers may impose limits on the maximum stakes or payouts, especially on markets with long odds. This could affect the potential returns from Bet 2.

4. Timeframe of the Event:
The event is scheduled for a future date far from the current time, which introduces variables such as player injuries, team form changes, or even event cancellation.

Conclusion

While the calculated figures present a compelling arbitrage opportunity with a significant profit margin, practical considerations introduce risk factors that cannot be ignored. The possibility of bet cancellation due to bookmaker error policies, stake limitations, and changes in event circumstances underscore the importance of due diligence.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to place any bets. Betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should engage responsibly, ensuring they are aware of all terms and conditions associated with any wagers they consider.