NCAAB Betting Arbitrage: Georgia State vs. Mercer Dec 2024 Opportunity (ROI: 9.9%)
Introduction
We have identified a fresh arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAAB basketball game between the Georgia State Panthers and the Mercer Bears, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis provides an objective overview of the bets involved and examines the potential outcomes within the sports betting market.
Analysis
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Mercer Bears to win
- Odds: -205 (American odds)
- Stake: $738.42
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Georgia State Panthers to win
- Odds: +320 (American odds)
- Stake: $261.58
Mathematical Validation of Arbitrage:
To confirm the validity of this arbitrage betting opportunity, we convert the American odds to decimal odds and calculate the implied probabilities.
Conversion to Decimal Odds:
For odds of -205 (Mercer Bears):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 205) = 1.4878
For odds of +320 (Georgia State Panthers):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (320 / 100) = 4.20
Implied Probabilities:
Mercer Bears: 1 / 1.4878 = 67.24%
Georgia State Panthers: 1 / 4.20 = 23.81%
Total Implied Probability: 67.24% + 23.81% = 91.05%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage margin of 8.95% in the sports betting market.
Potential Returns:
If Mercer Bears win:
Return = $738.42 × 1.4878 = $1,098.62
Net Profit = $1,098.62 - ($738.42 + $261.58) = $98.62
If Georgia State Panthers win:
Return = $261.58 × 4.20 = $1,098.64
Net Profit = $1,098.64 - ($738.42 + $261.58) = $98.64
Discussion
This arbitrage betting opportunity appears to offer a potential profit of approximately $98.62, regardless of the game's outcome. The significant arbitrage margin suggests that there is a discrepancy in the odds provided by the bookmakers, which is rare in efficient sports betting markets.
Several considerations should be made:
- Odds Availability: Odds can fluctuate rapidly due to market movements. The arbitrage opportunity may diminish if the odds change before both bets are placed.
- Bookmaker Policies: Both FanDuel and BetRivers have terms that may allow them to void bets placed on erroneous odds. It is important to review these policies to understand the potential risks.
- Event Timing: Offering bets on events scheduled over a year in advance is uncommon. There may be increased risk of changes or cancellations affecting the wagers.
- Account Limitations: Engaging in arbitrage betting may lead to account restrictions or limitations by bookmakers who monitor such activities.
- Market Efficiency: High-profile sports events typically have efficient markets, making sizeable arbitrage margins unusual and possibly indicative of errors.
Conclusion
While the mathematical analysis indicates a potential profit through arbitrage betting on this event, practical risks and market dynamics introduce uncertainty. Factors such as odds volatility, bookmaker policies, and the unusual timing of the event should be carefully considered when evaluating this opportunity.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only within the context of sports betting and arbitrage betting. It does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risks, and individuals should make informed decisions and consult professionals where appropriate.