NCAAB Arbitrage Opportunity: Maryland Showdown Profit Potential (ROI: 12.3%)
Introduction
A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving an upcoming NCAAB game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 12:01 pm. An arbitrage betting situation has been identified based on the odds offered by two bookmakers, FanDuel and BetMGM. This memo provides an objective analysis of this potential arbitrage betting opportunity.
Analysis
The potential arbitrage involves placing two bets on the Moneyline market for the same game but with different bookmakers offering divergent odds.
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Maryland Terrapins to win
- Odds: -620 (American odds)
- Stake: $966.97
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks to win
- Odds: +3300 (American odds)
- Stake: $33.03
To determine the validity of this arbitrage opportunity, a thorough analysis of the odds and potential payouts is necessary.
Step 1: Converting American Odds to Decimal Odds
For accurate calculations, American odds are converted to decimal odds.
For odds of -620 (Maryland Terrapins):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 ÷ |Odds|) = 1 + (100 ÷ 620) ≈ 1.16129
For odds of +3300 (Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks):
Decimal Odds = 1 + (Odds ÷ 100) = 1 + (3300 ÷ 100) = 34.00
Step 2: Calculating Implied Probabilities
Implied probability shows the likelihood of an outcome as implied by the odds.
Maryland Terrapins:
Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds = 1 ÷ 1.16129 ≈ 0.8605 or 86.05%
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks:
Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Decimal Odds = 1 ÷ 34.00 ≈ 0.0294 or 2.94%
Total Implied Probability = 86.05% + 2.94% = 88.99%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, an arbitrage opportunity may exist.
Step 3: Calculating the Arbitrage Percentage
Arbitrage Percentage = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds of Outcome 1 + 1 ÷ Decimal Odds of Outcome 2) × 100%
Arbitrage Percentage = (0.8605 + 0.0294) × 100% = 88.99%
This percentage confirms the potential for arbitrage in this sports betting scenario.
Step 4: Calculating Potential Payouts and Profits
Total Stake = $966.97 + $33.03 = $1000.00
Scenario 1: Maryland Terrapins Win
Payout = Stake on Bet 1 × Decimal Odds of Bet 1 = $966.97 × 1.16129 ≈ $1123.98
Net Profit = Payout - Total Stake = $1123.98 - $1000.00 = $123.98
Scenario 2: Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks Win
Payout = Stake on Bet 2 × Decimal Odds of Bet 2 = $33.03 × 34.00 = $1122.98
Net Profit = Payout - Total Stake = $1122.98 - $1000.00 = $122.98
The net profit in both scenarios is approximately $123, regardless of the game's outcome.
Step 5: Assessing Return on Investment (ROI)
ROI = (Net Profit ÷ Total Stake) × 100%
ROI = ($123.98 ÷ $1000.00) × 100% ≈ 12.40%
Discussion
This arbitrage opportunity presents a potential for a consistent profit due to the discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers. By betting on all possible outcomes with appropriately calculated stakes, a profit is secured regardless of the game's result. The calculated ROI of approximately 12% is a significant return for a single event in arbitrage betting.
However, several factors must be considered:
Bet Acceptance and Limits: Both FanDuel and BetMGM must accept the stakes as calculated. High stakes on certain odds may trigger betting limits or require manual approval.
Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly in sports betting. There is a risk that one bookmaker might adjust their odds before both bets are placed, potentially eliminating the arbitrage opportunity.
Bookmaker Policies and Rules: Understanding the terms and conditions of each bookmaker is essential, including their policies on voided bets, cancellations, and settlement rules.
Legal Considerations: The legality of arbitrage betting varies by jurisdiction. It is important to ensure that such activities are permitted in the relevant region.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that an arbitrage betting opportunity exists for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Maryland Terrapins and the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks. By placing the specified bets with the respective bookmakers, a profit of approximately $123 could potentially be achieved, representing a 12% return on the total stake. It is crucial to consider the risks involved, including bet acceptance, odds movements, and compliance with bookmaker rules and legal regulations.
Disclaimer
This memo is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice or recommendations. Individuals should exercise due diligence and consult professional advice where appropriate.