NCAAB Arbitrage: Louisville vs. Eastern Kentucky (ROI: 10.8%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified between two bookmakers, FanDuel and DraftKings, for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Louisville Cardinals and the Eastern Kentucky Colonels scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the potential of this sports betting opportunity.
Analysis
Two bets have been considered for this arbitrage betting strategy:
Bet 1: Louisville Cardinals to Win
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Moneyline
- Odds: -720 (American odds)
- Stake: $972.97
Bet 2: Eastern Kentucky Colonels to Win
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline
- Odds: +4000 (American odds)
- Stake: $27.03
To assess the potential returns, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
For Odds of -720:
Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 720) ≈ 1.1389
For Odds of +4000:
Decimal Odds = 1 + (4000 / 100) = 41.00
Calculating potential returns for each outcome:
If Louisville Cardinals Win:
- Return from Bet 1: $972.97 * 1.1389 ≈ $1,108.94
- Loss from Bet 2: $27.03
- Net Profit: $1,108.94 - ($972.97 + $27.03) = $108.94
If Eastern Kentucky Colonels Win:
- Return from Bet 2: $27.03 * 41.00 = $1,108.23
- Loss from Bet 1: $972.97
- Net Profit: $1,108.23 - ($972.97 + $27.03) = $108.23
The total amount staked is $1,000, and the potential profit in either scenario is approximately $108, representing a profit margin of about 10.8%.
Discussion
This arbitrage betting setup appears to offer a guaranteed profit regardless of the game's outcome. However, several factors need to be considered to ensure the viability of this opportunity:
Betting Limits:
Bookmakers may impose limits on the maximum stake or potential payout, especially on high-odds wagers like a +4000 moneyline. It is important to verify whether the proposed stakes are acceptable to both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Odds Fluctuations:
Sports betting odds can change rapidly due to various factors. There is a possibility that the odds might adjust before both bets are placed, which could affect the arbitrage opportunity. Placing both bets simultaneously can help mitigate this risk.
Potential Errors:
Unusually high odds, such as +4000 for Eastern Kentucky, might be due to a clerical error by the bookmaker. Bookmakers reserve the right to void bets placed on erroneous odds. It is advisable to compare odds from multiple sources to ensure consistency.
Event Uncertainties:
The game is scheduled over a year in the future. Events could be postponed or canceled, which might lead to bets being voided according to the bookmakers' terms and conditions. Reviewing these policies is essential.
Market Consistency:
Ensure that both bets are placed on the same market terms, including regulation time and overtime if applicable. Discrepancies in market rules between bookmakers could affect the outcome of the arbitrage strategy.
Regulatory Considerations:
Compliance with local laws and regulations governing sports betting is crucial. Additionally, frequent engagement in arbitrage betting may lead to account restrictions imposed by bookmakers.
Conclusion
The analyzed arbitrage opportunity between FanDuel and DraftKings for the NCAAB game presents a potential profit of approximately $108 on a total stake of $1,000. While the calculations indicate a favorable outcome, it is important to carefully consider the associated risks and take appropriate precautions. Verifying stake limits, ensuring simultaneous bet placement, and reviewing bookmaker terms can help in effectively executing this arbitrage betting strategy.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. No guarantees are made regarding the viability of the discussed arbitrage opportunity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should evaluate all factors and consult with professionals where appropriate before engaging in any betting activities.