NCAAB Arbitrage: George Mason vs Mt. St. Mary's (ROI: 20.2%)
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAAB game between the George Mason Patriots and the Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis will examine the details of this opportunity in sports betting to provide a clear understanding of how it operates within arbitrage betting strategies.
Analysis
The arbitrage involves placing two opposing bets on the alternate point spread market with two different bookmakers, covering all possible outcomes.
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Bet: George Mason Patriots -14.5
- Odds: +280
- Stake: $316.25
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Bet: Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers +14.5
- Odds: -132
- Stake: $683.75
Discussion
This arbitrage betting strategy aims to capitalize on the variation in odds offered by different bookmakers in sports betting. By strategically placing these bets, the outcomes are as follows:
Scenario 1: George Mason wins by 15 points or more
- Bet 1 wins: The payout is calculated by multiplying the stake by the odds factor (decimal odds of 3.80), resulting in a return of $1,201.75.
- Bet 2 loses: The stake of $683.75 is lost.
- Net Profit: Total return of $1,201.75 minus total stakes of $1,000 equals a profit of $201.75.
Scenario 2: Mt. St. Mary's wins or loses by 14 points or fewer
- Bet 2 wins: The payout using the decimal odds of approximately 1.7576 results in a return of approximately $1,201.75.
- Bet 1 loses: The stake of $316.25 is lost.
- Net Profit: Total return of $1,201.75 minus total stakes of $1,000 equals a profit of $201.75.
In both scenarios, the bets are structured to ensure that the total returns are equal, leading to a consistent net profit regardless of the game's outcome. This is a fundamental aspect of arbitrage betting, leveraging discrepancies in sports betting odds.
Conclusion
This analysis demonstrates how, through careful calculation and understanding of sports betting markets, an arbitrage opportunity can be identified and potentially utilized. By covering all possible outcomes with specific stakes and odds, bettors can create a situation where a net profit is realized irrespective of the result of the game. It is essential to verify all odds, stakes, and market conditions at the time of placing bets, as they are subject to change.
Disclaimer
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Betting involves risk, and individuals should assess their own risk tolerance and consult with a professional before participating. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations regarding gambling activities.