NCAAB Arbitrage Alert: Dayton vs La Salle (ROI: 180.9%)
(ROI: 180.9%) Arbitrage betting potential identified for Dayton Flyers vs. La Salle Explorers with FanDuel offering +220 and DraftKings +2200. Betting $1000 overall could yield ~$1808 profit, but odds discrepancy and bookmaker error policies present risks.
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has surfaced in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAAB game between the Dayton Flyers and the La Salle Explorers, scheduled for December 31, 2024. This analysis examines the details of the bets offered by two bookmakers to determine if a risk-free arbitrage situation exists.
Bet Details
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
Outcome: Dayton Flyers to win
Odds: +220
Stake: $877.86
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
Outcome: La Salle Explorers to win
Odds: +2200
Stake: $122.14
Total Stake: $1,000
Analysis
To assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it's essential to convert the American odds to decimal odds and calculate the potential returns for each outcome in this sports betting scenario.
Converting Odds:
For positive American odds, the formula is:
Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1
Bet 1 (Dayton Flyers):
Decimal Odds = (220 / 100) + 1 = 3.20
Bet 2 (La Salle Explorers):
Decimal Odds = (2200 / 100) + 1 = 23.00
Calculating Potential Returns:
Scenario 1: Dayton Flyers Win
Return from Bet 1 = $877.86 × 3.20 = $2,809.15
Profit = $2,809.15 - $1,000 = $1,809.15
Scenario 2: La Salle Explorers Win
Return from Bet 2 = $122.14 × 23.00 = $2,808.22
Profit = $2,808.22 - $1,000 = $1,808.22
Discussion
The calculations suggest a potential profit of approximately $1,808 to $1,809 regardless of the game's outcome, indicating an arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market. However, several factors should be carefully considered:
Odds Discrepancy: The substantial difference in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings is unusual. The La Salle Explorers are listed at +2200, which is significantly higher than typical for this type of matchup. Such discrepancies may stem from errors or anomalies in the odds-setting process.
Bookmaker Policies: Both bookmakers have terms and conditions addressing palpable errors. If an odds mistake is identified, they may void affected bets or adjust them to the correct odds. This could impact the expected returns from the arbitrage betting strategy.
Risk of Void Bets: If one bookmaker voids a bet due to an error while the other bet remains active, it could result in an unintended exposure to loss rather than a risk-free profit.
Event Timing: The game is scheduled over a year in the future. Long-term bets can be subject to changes such as player transfers, injuries, or other factors influencing team performance, which could affect odds and bookmaker policies.
Conclusion
While the initial calculations indicate a potential arbitrage betting opportunity with significant profit margins, the unusual odds discrepancy raises concerns about the validity of this opportunity. Factors such as bookmaker error policies and the long timeframe before the event introduce risks that may negate the potential for a risk-free profit in this sports betting scenario. Careful consideration and thorough research are essential before engaging in such arbitrage betting opportunities.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries risks, and individuals should consult with a qualified professional before making any betting decisions.