NCAA Football Arbitrage: Nebraska vs. Boston College Opportunity (ROI: 28.6%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Football game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Boston College Eagles scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves exploiting price differences in the sports betting market to secure a possible profit.
Analysis
The arbitrage involves two bets placed on the total points scored in the game (Over/Under 38.5 points) with two different bookmakers:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 38.5 points
- Odds: +1200 (Decimal Odds: 13.00)
- Stake: $98.93
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 38.5 points
- Odds: -234 (Decimal Odds: 1.43)
- Stake: $901.07
The total stake across both bets is $1,000.
Discussion
The essence of this arbitrage betting opportunity lies in the significant difference in odds offered by the two bookmakers for the same event outcome. By placing these two bets, one can potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's total points outcome.
Potential Outcomes:
Scenario 1 - Over 38.5 Points:
- Bet 1 wins: $98.93 x 13.00 = $1,286.09
- Bet 2 loses: -$901.07
- Net Profit: $1,286.09 - $1,000 = $286.09
Scenario 2 - Under 38.5 Points:
- Bet 2 wins: $901.07 x 1.43 = $1,287.53
- Bet 1 loses: -$98.93
- Net Profit: $1,287.53 - $1,000 = $287.53
The calculations indicate a potential profit of approximately $286 to $288, representing a return of about 28.6% on the total stake.
Considerations:
- Market Efficiency: Such significant discrepancies in odds are uncommon in sports betting markets, which are typically efficient due to the rapid adjustment of odds.
- Risk Factors: There is a possibility that the unusually high odds on the Over 38.5 points at FanDuel could be due to an error (palpable error) which may lead to the bet being voided.
- Sportsbook Policies: Understanding the terms and conditions of both bookmakers is crucial, particularly regarding voided bets and how they handle errors in odds postings.
Conclusion
The presented arbitrage opportunity appears to offer a significant potential profit in sports betting. By carefully evaluating the odds and stakes, one can leverage the differences between bookmakers. However, it is essential to consider the risks involved, including the possibility of bet cancellation due to errors in odds. Thorough due diligence and understanding of the sportsbook policies are recommended before proceeding.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting. Betting involves risk, and it is important to gamble responsibly. Always verify the accuracy of odds and understand the terms with bookmakers before placing any bets.