NCAA Football Arbitrage: Louisiana vs. TCU Betting Opportunity (ROI: 16.6%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NCAA Football game between the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and the TCU Horned Frogs, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 2:25 PM. This opportunity involves point spread bets available on DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks.
Analysis
The specific bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Market: Point Spread
- Selection: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +31.5 points
- Odds: -120
- Stake: $635.76
Bet 2:
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Market: Point Spread
- Selection: TCU Horned Frogs -31.5 points
- Odds: +220
- Stake: $364.24
The total amount staked is $1,000. The key aspect of this potential arbitrage betting opportunity lies in the differing odds and point spreads offered by the two sportsbooks.
Discussion
There are two possible outcomes based on the game's final score margin:
Scenario 1: TCU wins by 32 points or more
In this case, Bet 2 on TCU -31.5 at BetMGM would win. The potential profit is calculated as follows:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $364.24 × (220 / 100) = $801.33
Total return = Profit + Stake = $801.33 + $364.24 = $1,165.57
After subtracting the lost stake from Bet 1 ($635.76), the net profit would be:
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,165.57 - $1,000 = $165.57
Scenario 2: TCU wins by 31 points or fewer, or Louisiana wins
In this scenario, Bet 1 on Louisiana +31.5 at DraftKings would win. The potential profit is calculated as:
Profit = Stake × (100 / Odds) = $635.76 × (100 / 120) = $529.80
Total return = Profit + Stake = $529.80 + $635.76 = $1,165.56
After subtracting the lost stake from Bet 2 ($364.24), the net profit would be:
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,165.56 - $1,000 = $165.56
In both scenarios, the net profit remains approximately $165.56, indicating a potential risk-free return based on the mechanics of arbitrage betting in sports betting markets.
Conclusion
The analysis demonstrates that by strategically placing these two bets, a consistent net profit may be achievable regardless of the game's outcome. This arises from the disparities in odds and point spreads between DraftKings and BetMGM. However, several factors should be carefully considered, including the possibility of odds changes, betting limits, and the terms and conditions of each sportsbook. External factors such as transaction fees, taxes, and legal considerations in sports betting jurisdictions may also impact the actual profitability of this arbitrage betting strategy.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or legal advice. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should exercise caution and consult with a professional advisor if necessary before engaging in any betting activities.