NCAA Football Arbitrage: Colorado State vs. Miami (OH) Opportunities (ROI: 31.1%)
Introduction
Dear readers, we have identified a new potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market. This analysis aims to provide an objective assessment of this opportunity involving the upcoming NCAA Football game between the Colorado State Rams and the Miami (OH) RedHawks.
Analysis
Event Details:
Event: Colorado State Rams vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks
League: NCAA Football (NCAAF)
Event Start: December 28, 2024, at 4:38 PM
Market: First Quarter Total Points (Over/Under 6.5 points)
Bet 1:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Outcome: Over 6.5 points
Odds: +360 (Decimal: 4.60)
Stake: $284.97
Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Outcome: Under 6.5 points
Odds: -120 (Decimal: 1.83)
Stake: $715.03
Total Stake: $1,000
The market focuses on whether the total points scored in the first quarter will be over or under 6.5 points. Bet 1 is placed on the total being over 6.5 points, while Bet 2 covers the under.
Discussion
Possible Outcomes:
Scenario 1: Over 6.5 Points
If the combined score in the first quarter is 7 points or more, Bet 1 wins.
Payout for Bet 1: $284.97 × 4.60 = $1,310.86
Profit from Bet 1: $1,310.86 - $284.97 = $1,025.89
Loss from Bet 2: -$715.03
Net Profit: $1,025.89 - $715.03 = $310.86
Scenario 2: Under 6.5 Points
If the combined score is 6 points or less, Bet 2 wins.
Payout for Bet 2: $715.03 × 1.83 = $1,310.50
Profit from Bet 2: $1,310.50 - $715.03 = $595.47
Loss from Bet 1: -$284.97
Net Profit: $595.47 - $284.97 = $310.50
In both scenarios, the net profit appears to be approximately $310 on a total stake of $1,000.
Implications
This arbitrage opportunity suggests a potential profit regardless of the first quarter's total points outcome. However, several factors should be considered:
- Odds Verification: The odds for Over 6.5 points at +360 seem unusually favorable. It's important to verify these odds with DraftKings to ensure they are accurate and not a result of a listing error.
- Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on the amount that can be wagered on specific markets. Confirm that the required stakes can be placed without restrictions.
- Market Rules: Ensure that both bookmakers have identical rules regarding the settlement of the first quarter total points market to prevent discrepancies in bet outcomes.
- Event Timing: The event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, which is quite far in the future. Be aware of potential schedule changes or unforeseen circumstances that could affect the event.
- Risk of Voided Bets: If one bookmaker voids a bet due to odds errors or other reasons, the arbitrage position would be compromised.
- Legal Considerations: Verify that participating in arbitrage betting complies with local laws and the terms and conditions of the bookmakers involved.
Conclusion
While the calculations indicate a potential profit from this arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market, it is essential to approach with caution. Verification of odds, understanding of bookmaker policies, and consideration of potential risks are crucial steps before engaging in such strategies. This analysis does not guarantee any outcomes but serves to highlight the importance of thorough evaluation in arbitrage betting.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should ensure they understand these risks and comply with all applicable laws and regulations related to sports betting and arbitrage betting in their jurisdiction.