NCAA Basketball Arbitrage: Profiting on Total Points Line (ROI: 9.2%)

Introduction

The following analysis examines a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the NCAA basketball game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies and the North Carolina Central Eagles scheduled for December 28, 2024. Two bets from different bookmakers are considered, offering opposing outcomes on the total points scored in the game.

Analysis

The two bets under consideration are:

Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 173.5 points
- Odds: +155
- Stake: $428.13

Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Totals
- Outcome: Over 173.5 points
- Odds: -110
- Stake: $571.87

To assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, we calculate the potential returns from both bets:

Bet 1 Potential Return:
The odds of +155 imply that for every $100 wagered, a profit of $155 is made if the bet is successful. Therefore, the potential profit for a $428.13 stake is:
Profit = ($428.13 × 155) ÷ 100 = $663.59
Total return = Stake + Profit = $428.13 + $663.59 = $1,091.72

Bet 2 Potential Return:
The odds of -110 indicate that a stake of $110 is needed to win a profit of $100. Therefore, the potential profit for a $571.87 stake is:
Profit = ($571.87 × 100) ÷ 110 = $519.88
Total return = Stake + Profit = $571.87 + $519.88 = $1,091.75

Total Stakes:
Total amount wagered = $428.13 + $571.87 = $1,000.00

Potential Profit:
If either bet wins, the total return is approximately $1,091.73, resulting in a potential profit of:
Profit = $1,091.73 - $1,000.00 = $91.73

Discussion

This scenario suggests an arbitrage betting opportunity where, regardless of the game's outcome, a profit of approximately $91.73 could be realized on a total stake of $1,000. This occurs because the combined payouts from both bets exceed the total amount wagered. The key factors contributing to this opportunity include the differing odds provided by the two bookmakers and the opposite outcomes on the same total points line.

However, several factors must be carefully considered:

1. Market Consistency: Both bets must refer to the exact same market conditions, specifically the total points line of 173.5 points for the full game, including any overtime periods.
2. Bookmaker Rules: Each bookmaker may have different terms regarding bet settlement, particularly concerning overtime and game cancellations. It's important to ensure that both bets will be honored and settled in the same way.
3. Odds Validity: Odds can change rapidly. To capitalize on this opportunity, both bets need to be placed simultaneously to lock in the stated odds.
4. Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on the amount that can be staked on certain markets. Verification that both stakes are acceptable is necessary.
5. Account Status: Each betting account should be in good standing without any restrictions that could affect bet placement or payouts.

Conclusion

This analysis identifies a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA basketball game. By placing opposing bets on the total points scored with different bookmakers, there appears to be a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the game's outcome. Nonetheless, careful consideration of the factors outlined is essential to ensure that the opportunity is valid and that all terms and conditions are met.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries risks, and outcomes are uncertain. Always engage in betting activities responsibly and consult with professionals if needed.