NCAA Basketball Arbitrage: Eastern Kentucky vs. Louisville (ROI: 17.1%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Men's Basketball game between the Eastern Kentucky Colonels and the Louisville Cardinals, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 12:07 pm. This opportunity arises from differing odds offered by two bookmakers on the First Half Point Spread market, presenting a chance for a risk-free profit.

Analysis

Event: Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Louisville Cardinals
Market: First Half Point Spread (±15.5 points)

Bet 1:
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Selection: Eastern Kentucky Colonels +15.5
Odds: -125
Stake: $650.49

Bet 2:
Bookmaker: BetRivers
Selection: Louisville Cardinals -15.5
Odds: +235
Stake: $349.51

The total combined stake for both bets is $1,000. These bets cover all possible outcomes related to the specified point spread at halftime, theoretically ensuring a profit regardless of the game's progress.

Discussion

The potential outcomes and corresponding net profits are as follows:

Scenario 1: Louisville leads by 16 or more points at halftime.

• Bet 1 (Eastern Kentucky +15.5 at -125): Loses, resulting in a loss of $650.49.
• Bet 2 (Louisville -15.5 at +235): Wins.
  Profit calculation: $349.51 × 2.35 = $821.35.
  Total return: $821.35 + $349.51 (stake) = $1,170.86.
  Net Profit: $1,170.86 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $170.86.

Scenario 2: Louisville leads by 15 or fewer points, the game is tied, or Eastern Kentucky leads at halftime.

• Bet 1 (Eastern Kentucky +15.5 at -125): Wins.
  Profit calculation: $650.49 / 1.25 = $520.39.
  Total return: $520.39 + $650.49 (stake) = $1,170.88.
  Net Profit: $1,170.88 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $170.88.
• Bet 2 (Louisville -15.5 at +235): Loses, resulting in a loss of $349.51.

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $170.87 on the total investment of $1,000.

Important Considerations:

• Market Consistency: Confirm that both bets are placed on the same market and are subject to identical terms and conditions.
• Odds Verification: Odds are subject to change; ensure that the listed odds are current at the time of placing the bets.
• Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on the amount that can be wagered; verify that the desired stakes are permissible.
• Bookmaker Policies: Familiarize yourself with each bookmaker's rules regarding voided bets, cancellations, and palpable errors that might affect bet settlement.
• Event Confirmation: Ensure that both bookmakers are offering bets on the same event with matching details, including date and time.

Conclusion

The provided analysis suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity in the First Half Point Spread market for the Eastern Kentucky vs. Louisville game. The structured bets cover all possible outcomes related to the point spread at halftime, with an estimated net profit of approximately $170.87 regardless of the result. Thoroughly verifying all information and considering the outlined factors is crucial to mitigate any risks associated with this opportunity.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. It does not constitute advice or a recommendation to engage in betting activities. Betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise due diligence and consult with professional advisors before making any wagering decisions.