NCAA Basketball Arbitrage: DePaul vs. Loyola Betting Edge (ROI: 38.5%)
Introduction
A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NCAA Basketball game between the DePaul Blue Demons and the Loyola (MD) Greyhounds, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This opportunity involves discrepancies in the odds offered by two bookmakers—FanDuel and BetMGM—on the alternate totals market for the game's total points.
Analysis
The proposed bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 154.5 points
- American Odds: +350
- Decimal Odds: 4.50
- Stake: $307.69
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 154.5 points
- American Odds: +100
- Decimal Odds: 2.00
- Stake: $692.31
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.00. By placing these two bets, all possible outcomes regarding the total points scored in the game at the 154.5 threshold are covered.
Discussion
Potential Returns for Each Outcome:
Scenario 1: Total Points Over 154.5
- Winnings from Bet 1: $307.69 × 4.50 = $1,384.61
- Loss from Bet 2: -$692.31
- Net Profit: $1,384.61 - $692.31 (loss) - $307.69 (original stake) = $384.61
Scenario 2: Total Points Under 154.5
- Winnings from Bet 2: $692.31 × 2.00 = $1,384.62
- Loss from Bet 1: -$307.69
- Net Profit: $1,384.62 - $307.69 (loss) - $692.31 (original stake) = $384.62
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $384.61, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity where profit is achieved regardless of the game's total points outcome.
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Verification of Arbitrage Conditions:
- Market Consistency: Both bets are on the same market (total points at 154.5) but on opposite outcomes.
- Odds Discrepancy: The difference in odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM creates the potential for arbitrage.
- Implied Probabilities:
- FanDuel Over 154.5 (+350): 100 / (350 + 100) = 22.22%
- BetMGM Under 154.5 (+100): 100 / (100 + 100) = 50%
- Total: 22.22% + 50% = 72.22%
This total is less than 100%, suggesting that the combined bets cover all outcomes with a margin for profit.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the discrepancy in odds between FanDuel and BetMGM for the total points market creates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity. By allocating stakes proportionally between the two bookmakers, there is an opportunity to secure a profit of approximately $384.61, irrespective of whether the game's total points are over or under 154.5.
It is important to consider factors such as:
- Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum or minimum stake limits that could affect the feasibility of placing the desired bets.
- Odds Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly; ensuring both bets are placed simultaneously is critical.
- Terms and Conditions: Understanding each bookmaker's rules regarding the specific market is essential, including how overtime impacts the total points.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their actions and consult with professionals if necessary.