NBA Total Points Arbitrage: Celtics vs. Pacers (ROI: 71.4%)
(ROI: 71.4%) Betting opportunity in Celtics vs. Pacers game on Dec 29, 2024. Total Points market: FanDuel (Under 237.5) at +1100, DraftKings (Over 237.5) at +100. Stake $1,000 total. Potential arbitrage profit around $714.30 due to odd discrepancies.
Introduction
A recent betting opportunity has emerged for the upcoming NBA matchup between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers scheduled for December 29, 2024, at 6:10 pm. The focus is on the Total Points (Over/Under 237.5) market, where discrepancies between two major bookmakers have created a potential arbitrage situation.
Analysis
Two bets are identified for this analysis:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 237.5
- Odds: +1100 (American odds)
- Stake: $142.86
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Totals
- Outcome: Over 237.5
- Odds: +100 (American odds)
- Stake: $857.14
The total stake across both bets amounts to $1,000.
To evaluate the potential arbitrage, the odds are converted to decimal format:
- Bet 1 Decimal Odds: 12.0
- Bet 2 Decimal Odds: 2.0
The implied probabilities are calculated as follows:
- Bet 1 Implied Probability: 8.33%
- Bet 2 Implied Probability: 50%
The combined implied probability is 58.33%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage.
Discussion
Examining the possible outcomes:
Scenario 1: Over 237.5 Points
- Bet 2 Wins: A payout of $1,714.28 is expected from DraftKings.
- Net Profit: After accounting for the loss of Bet 1, the net profit is approximately $714.28.
Scenario 2: Under 237.5 Points
- Bet 1 Wins: A payout of $1,714.32 is anticipated from FanDuel.
- Net Profit: Considering the loss of Bet 2, the net profit is approximately $714.32.
In both scenarios, the net profit remains consistent at around $714.30, suggesting a risk-free profit opportunity due to the significant difference in odds offered by the two bookmakers.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the identified bets on the Total Points (Over/Under 237.5) market for the Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers game present an arbitrage betting opportunity. By placing the specified wagers, the potential exists for a consistent net profit regardless of the game's outcome. This situation arises from the discrepancies in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings, highlighting the importance of monitoring markets for such opportunities within sports betting and arbitrage betting strategies.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Betting involves risk, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any decisions.