NBA Q1 Alternate Spread Opportunity: Hawks vs. Heat (ROI: 10.4%)
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat. This opportunity involves placing bets on the first quarter alternate spreads with two different sportsbooks. Below is a detailed analysis of this sports betting scenario.
Analysis
The event is scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. The market in focus is the first quarter (Q1) alternate spreads, available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Market: Q1 Alternate Spread
- Selection: Miami Heat +1.5 points
- Odds: -146
- Stake: $655.08
Bet 2:
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Market: Q1 Alternate Spread
- Selection: Atlanta Hawks -1.5 points
- Odds: +220
- Stake: $344.92
The total stake across both bets is $1,000. These bets are structured to cover all possible outcomes of the first quarter, aiming to secure a profit regardless of the result.
Discussion
Possible Outcomes and Financial Implications:
Scenario 1: Atlanta Hawks win Q1 by 2 or more points.
- Bet 1 (Miami Heat +1.5): Loses, resulting in a loss of $655.08.
- Bet 2 (Atlanta Hawks -1.5): Wins. The potential profit is calculated as follows:
Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $344.92 × (220 / 100) = $758.82
Total return from Bet 2 is $344.92 (stake) + $758.82 (profit) = $1,103.74.
Net Outcome: $1,103.74 (return) - $655.08 (loss) = $448.66 gain.
Scenario 2: Any other result (Atlanta wins Q1 by 1 point, tie, or Miami wins Q1).
- Bet 1 (Miami Heat +1.5): Wins. The potential profit is calculated as follows:
Profit = Stake × (100 / 146) = $655.08 × (100 / 146) = $448.66
Total return from Bet 1 is $655.08 (stake) + $448.66 (profit) = $1,103.74.
- Bet 2 (Atlanta Hawks -1.5): Loses, resulting in a loss of $344.92.
Net Outcome: $1,103.74 (return) - $344.92 (loss) = $758.82 gain.
Return on Investment (ROI):
The net profit in both scenarios is $103.74 on a total stake of $1,000, resulting in an ROI of 10.374%.
Considerations:
- Both bets cover all possible outcomes of the first quarter spread, minimizing risk.
- There is no overlap where both bets could lose simultaneously.
- The odds and stakes are calculated to ensure a balanced outcome.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that this arbitrage betting opportunity offers a chance to secure a profit regardless of the first quarter's outcome between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat. By strategically placing bets on opposite outcomes with adjusted stakes, bettors can potentially achieve a positive ROI.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to place any bets. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.