NBA Points Spread Arbitrage Alert Celtics vs Pacers (ROI: 153.4%)
(ROI: 153.4%) Arbitrage bet for Celtics vs. Pacers: Bet $436.89 on under 240.5 points at +480, and $563.11 on over 240.5 at -350. Total investment $1,000. Potential outcomes: Under 240.5 nets $1,533.96; over 240.5 results in a $276.01 loss. Adjust stakes for risk-free profit.
Introduction
We have analyzed a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the NBA game between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. The proposed bets involve wagering on the total points scored in the game, a common practice in sports betting.
Analysis
The bets under consideration are as follows:
Bet 1: Under 240.5 points
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Odds: +480 (American odds)
- Stake: $436.89
Bet 2: Over 240.5 points
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Odds: -350 (American odds)
- Stake: $563.11
The total investment amounts to $1,000.
Conversion of American Odds to Decimal Odds:
- Bet 1: +480 converts to 5.80
- Bet 2: -350 converts to 1.2857
Potential Returns:
Bet 1 (Under 240.5 points):
- Potential Return: $436.89 × 5.80 = $2,533.96
- Potential Profit: $2,533.96 - $436.89 = $2,097.07
Bet 2 (Over 240.5 points):
- Potential Return: $563.11 × 1.2857 = $723.99
- Potential Profit: $723.99 - $563.11 = $160.88
Discussion
There are two possible outcomes based on the total points scored:
Outcome 1: Total Points Under 240.5
- Bet 1 wins, yielding a return of $2,533.96.
- Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of $563.11.
- Net Profit: $2,533.96 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $1,533.96.
Outcome 2: Total Points Over 240.5
- Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of $436.89.
- Bet 2 wins, yielding a return of $723.99.
- Net Loss: $723.99 - $1,000 (total stakes) = -$276.01.
The analysis shows that while there is a significant potential profit if the total points are under 240.5, there is also a risk of loss if the total points exceed 240.5. This indicates that the bet setup does not represent a risk-free arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
For an arbitrage bet to be risk-free, the stakes must be adjusted to ensure equal returns regardless of the outcome. Calculating the stakes based on the inverse of the decimal odds can achieve this balance. By allocating approximately 18.15% of the total investment to Bet 1 and 81.85% to Bet 2, the potential returns in both scenarios would be equalized at around $1,053.70, resulting in a guaranteed profit of $53.70 after deducting the total stakes.
Conclusion
The current bet configuration involves risk and does not constitute a valid and risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity. Proper stake adjustment is essential to create a balanced arbitrage situation. It's important to perform precise calculations and consider variables such as odds changes and bookmaker policies when engaging in sports betting strategies.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves risks, and individuals should conduct their own thorough analysis and exercise caution before participating.