NBA Point Spread Arbitrage: Pelicans vs Rockets
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets on December 26, 2024. This opportunity involves placing bets on alternate point spreads offered by two different sportsbooks, aiming to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Analysis
The arbitrage bet involves two wagers:
Bet 1 (DraftKings):
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Houston Rockets -12.5
- Odds: -650 (American odds)
- Stake: $918.48
Bet 2 (FanDuel):
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: New Orleans Pelicans +12.5
- Odds: +1200 (American odds)
- Stake: $81.52
To evaluate the potential returns, we convert the American odds to decimal odds:
Bet 1: -650 translates to decimal odds of 1.1538.
Bet 2: +1200 translates to decimal odds of 13.00.
Discussion
The two possible outcomes based on the 12.5-point spread are:
- The Houston Rockets win by 13 or more points.
- The New Orleans Pelicans win or lose by 12 points or fewer.
We calculate the net profit for each scenario:
Outcome 1: Rockets win by 13 or more points
- Bet 1 Wins: Return = $918.48 × 1.1538 = $1,059.78
Profit = $1,059.78 - $918.48 = $141.30 - Bet 2 Loses: Loss = -$81.52
- Net Profit: $141.30 - $81.52 = $59.78
Outcome 2: Pelicans win or lose by 12 points or fewer
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss = -$918.48
- Bet 2 Wins: Return = $81.52 × 13.00 = $1,059.76
Profit = $1,059.76 - $81.52 = $978.24 - Net Profit: $978.24 - $918.48 = $59.76
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $59.77 on a total stake of $1,000.00.
Return on Investment (ROI):
ROI = ($59.77 / $1,000.00) × 100% = 5.98%
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that by placing these bets, one could secure a net profit of approximately $59.77, regardless of the game's outcome. This represents a 5.98% return on the total investment. The bets cover all possible outcomes related to the 12.5-point spread between the two teams.
Disclaimer
This information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or betting advice. Individuals should conduct their own analysis and consider their personal circumstances before engaging in any betting activities.