NBA Over/Under Points Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 83.8%)

Introduction

A recent betting opportunity has emerged in the upcoming NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks scheduled for December 29, 2024. The focus is on the Total Points (Alternate Totals) market, specifically the Over/Under 246.5 points line. Two different bookmakers are offering contrasting odds on this market, potentially presenting an arbitrage betting opportunity for sports bettors.

Analysis

Bet Details:

Bet 1: Placed with FanDuel on the Under 246.5 points at odds of +114 with a stake of $858.65.

Bet 2: Placed with DraftKings on the Over 246.5 points at odds of +1200 with a stake of $141.35.

The total amount wagered is $1,000, distributed between the two bets based on the provided stakes.

Discussion

Odds Assessment: In typical NBA games, a total score exceeding 246.5 points is relatively rare, considering that average totals usually range between 210 and 230 points. The odds of +114 for the Under suggest that bookmakers believe there is a less than 50% chance of the game finishing with fewer than 246.5 points, which seems counterintuitive given historical scoring data.

Conversely, the Over bet at odds of +1200 indicates a long-shot scenario where the bookmaker anticipates a low probability of the total points exceeding 246.5. This significant disparity in odds between the Over and Under markets suggests an imbalance that could be due to a mispricing or an error in the odds.

Potential Outcomes:

If the total points are under 246.5:

• Under Bet Wins: The payout would be $858.65 x 2.14 ≈ $1,838.51.
• Over Bet Loses: Loss of the $141.35 stake.
• Net Profit: Approximately $838.51.

If the total points are over 246.5:

• Over Bet Wins: The payout would be $141.35 x 13 ≈ $1,837.55.
• Under Bet Loses: Loss of the $858.65 stake.
• Net Profit: Approximately $837.55.

In both scenarios, there appears to be a significant profit margin, which is atypical for arbitrage betting opportunities in the sports betting market.

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Conclusion

While the calculations suggest a profitable arbitrage betting situation, several factors raise concerns about the validity of this opportunity. The unusually high profit margin and the discrepancies in odds between the two bookmakers may indicate a potential error or mispricing in the odds offered. Additionally, bookmakers may cancel or void bets if they identify such discrepancies, citing terms and conditions related to palpable errors.

Bettors should exercise caution and verify the odds directly with the bookmakers before placing any bets. It is essential to consider the risks associated with potential bet cancellations and the possibility of odds adjustments after the bets are placed.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting activities. Please gamble responsibly and verify all information independently before making any betting decisions.