NBA Moneyline Mismatch: No Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 17.5%)
Introduction
We have recently come across a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market involving the upcoming NBA match between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat on December 28, 2024. This analysis aims to objectively examine the details of this bet to determine its viability as a risk-free arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
Event Details:
- Match: Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
- Date: December 28, 2024
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Miami Heat to win
- Odds: +195
- Stake: $398.25
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Moneyline (Head-to-Head)
- Outcome: Atlanta Hawks to win
- Odds: -105
- Stake: $601.75
The first step is to convert the American odds to decimal odds to simplify calculations:
Bet 1 (Miami Heat at +195):
Decimal odds = 1 + (Odds / 100) = 1 + (195 / 100) = 2.95
Bet 2 (Atlanta Hawks at -105):
Decimal odds = 1 + (100 / |Odds|) = 1 + (100 / 105) ≈ 1.9524
Next, calculate the implied probabilities:
Bet 1 (Miami Heat):
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds = 1 / 2.95 ≈ 33.90%
Bet 2 (Atlanta Hawks):
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds = 1 / 1.9524 ≈ 51.22%
The total implied probability is approximately 85.12%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in theory.
Discussion
To assess whether this is a genuine arbitrage opportunity, we need to analyze the potential returns for each outcome and determine if a profit is guaranteed regardless of the match result.
Total Stakes: $398.25 (Bet 1) + $601.75 (Bet 2) = $1,000
Scenario 1: Miami Heat Wins
- Return from Bet 1: $398.25 × 2.95 = $1,174.84
- Loss from Bet 2: -$601.75
- Net Gain: $1,174.84 - $601.75 = $573.09
- Net Profit: $573.09 - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = -$426.91
Scenario 2: Atlanta Hawks Wins
- Return from Bet 2: $601.75 × 1.9524 ≈ $1,174.84
- Loss from Bet 1: -$398.25
- Net Gain: $1,174.84 - $398.25 = $776.59
- Net Profit: $776.59 - $1,000 (Total Stakes) = -$223.41
In both scenarios, the net profit is negative, indicating a loss regardless of the outcome. This suggests that the bet does not constitute a valid risk-free arbitrage betting opportunity.
Conclusion
After a thorough analysis, it appears that the proposed bets on the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat do not offer a risk-free profit. Although the combined implied probability is less than 100%, the calculation of potential returns shows that both betting outcomes result in a financial loss. Therefore, this situation does not meet the criteria of a profitable arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with a professional advisor before engaging in any betting activities.