NBA Hawks vs Heat: Scoreline Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 17.2%)

Introduction

A newly identified arbitrage opportunity has surfaced in the NBA matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat. This analysis examines the betting odds offered by two different bookmakers on the first half total points market, specifically the alternate total set at 119.5 points.

Analysis

The following are the details of the bets from each bookmaker:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: First Half Total Points Over 119.5
• Odds: +320 (Decimal Odds: 4.20)
• Stake: $278.97

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: First Half Total Points Under 119.5
• Odds: -160 (Decimal Odds: 1.625)
• Stake: $721.03

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000.

Discussion

Potential Outcomes:

Scenario 1: Total Points Over 119.5

• Bet 1 wins with a payout of $278.97 * 4.20 = $1,171.47
• Profit from Bet 1: $1,171.47 - $278.97 = $892.50
• Bet 2 loses, resulting in a loss of $721.03
• Total Net Profit: $892.50 - $721.03 = $171.47

Scenario 2: Total Points Under 119.5

• Bet 2 wins with a payout of $721.03 * 1.625 = $1,171.67
• Profit from Bet 2: $1,171.67 - $721.03 = $450.64
• Bet 1 loses, resulting in a loss of $278.97
• Total Net Profit: $450.64 - $278.97 = $171.67

Implied Probabilities:

• Over 119.5 (+320): 100 / (320 + 100) = 23.81%
• Under 119.5 (-160): 160 / (160 + 100) = 61.54%
• Total Implied Probability: 23.81% + 61.54% = 85.35%

The combined implied probability is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity in this sports betting market.

Conclusion

The significant discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers for the same market allows for coverage of all possible outcomes in the first half total points. The calculations suggest a net profit of approximately $171.50, regardless of whether the total points are over or under 119.5. This situation exemplifies an arbitrage betting opportunity within the realm of sports betting.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in arbitrage betting. Individuals should conduct their own research and consider the risks involved before participating in any betting activities.