NBA Hawks vs Heat First Half Points Arbitrage (ROI: 17.4%)
Live Update: Analysis of NBA First Half Total Points Arbitrage Opportunity
Our latest analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. This memo provides a detailed breakdown of the betting options available for the First Half Total Points (Alternate Totals H1) market with an over/under line set at 116.5 points.
Event and Bet Details
Sport: NBA Basketball
Event Date and Time: December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM
Teams: Atlanta Hawks (Home) vs. Miami Heat (Away)
Market: First Half Total Points (Alternate Totals H1)
Over/Under Line: 116.5 points
Bet 1
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Outcome: Over 116.5 points
Odds: +205
Stake: $384.97
Bet 2
Bookmaker: BetMGM
Outcome: Under 116.5 points
Odds: -110
Stake: $615.03
Analysis
The two bets are placed on opposite outcomes in the same market, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity. Here's a detailed analysis:
Understanding the Bets
The bets are mutually exclusive due to the half-point line. This means:
- If the first half total points are over 116.5, Bet 1 wins.
- If the first half total points are under 116.5, Bet 2 wins.
There is no possibility of both bets winning or a draw (push).
Calculating Potential Returns
Bet 1:
- Odds Conversion: +205 translates to decimal odds of 3.05.
- Potential Return: $384.97 x 3.05 = $1,174.17.
Bet 2:
- Odds Conversion: -110 translates to decimal odds of 1.9091.
- Potential Return: $615.03 x 1.9091 ≈ $1,174.17.
Calculating Net Profit
Total Stake: $384.97 (Bet 1) + $615.03 (Bet 2) = $1,000.
Scenario 1: Over 116.5 Points
- Bet 1 wins: Return of $1,174.17.
- Bet 2 loses: Loss of $615.03.
- Net Profit: $1,174.17 - $1,000 = $174.17.
Scenario 2: Under 116.5 Points
- Bet 2 wins: Return of $1,174.17.
- Bet 1 loses: Loss of $384.97.
- Net Profit: $1,174.17 - $1,000 = $174.17.
The calculations show a consistent net profit of $174.17 in either scenario.
Discussion
This analysis suggests a risk-free arbitrage opportunity due to the discrepancy in odds offered by FanDuel and BetMGM for the same market. By placing the calculated stakes on opposing outcomes, bettors can secure a guaranteed profit regardless of the game's actual result.
Return on Investment (ROI):
- Net Profit: $174.17.
- Total Stake: $1,000.
- ROI Calculation: ($174.17 / $1,000) x 100% = 17.42%.
The ROI of approximately 17.42% is significant for a single event, highlighting the potential value in this arbitrage betting opportunity.
Key Considerations
- Market Volatility: Odds can change rapidly. It's crucial to verify the current odds before placing bets.
- Betting Limits: Bookmakers may have limits on stake amounts. Ensure that the required stakes are within allowable limits.
- Account Status: Active and verified accounts with both bookmakers are necessary to execute these bets efficiently.
- Legal Regulations: Be aware of and comply with all local laws and regulations regarding sports betting.
- Potential Cancellations: In case one of the bets is voided or canceled, the arbitrage opportunity would no longer be risk-free.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a valid arbitrage betting opportunity on the First Half Total Points market for the NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat. By strategically placing the specified bets with FanDuel and BetMGM, a bettor could secure a guaranteed profit of $174.17 on a $1,000 total stake, yielding an ROI of approximately 17.42%.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to participate in sports betting or arbitrage betting. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any betting decisions. Please gamble responsibly and be aware of the risks involved.