NBA Grizzlies vs Raptors Alternate Spread Arbitrage Analysis

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Memphis Grizzlies on December 26, 2024. This potential arbitrage bet involves alternate spreads offered by two different bookmakers. Below is a detailed analysis of this opportunity.

Analysis

Event Details:

- Teams: Toronto Raptors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

- Date and Time: December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM

- League: NBA

- Market: Alternate Spreads

Bet Breakdown:

Bet 1:

- Bookmaker: BetRivers

- Wager: Memphis Grizzlies -22.5

- Odds: -225 (American)

- Stake: $701.83

Bet 2:

- Bookmaker: FanDuel

- Wager: Toronto Raptors +22.5

- Odds: +240 (American)

- Stake: $298.17

Total Stake Across Both Bets: $1,000

Understanding the Bets:

- Memphis Grizzlies -22.5: Betting that the Grizzlies will win by more than 22.5 points.

- Toronto Raptors +22.5: Betting that the Raptors will win the game or lose by less than 22.5 points.

Since the spread is set at 22.5 points, there is no possibility of a push, ensuring that one bet will win while the other loses.

Discussion

Converting Odds to Decimal Format:

- Bet 1 (-225): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 225) = 1.4444

- Bet 2 (+240): Decimal Odds = 1 + (240 / 100) = 3.4000

Calculating Potential Outcomes:

Scenario 1: Grizzlies Win by 23 Points or More

- Bet 1 Wins: $701.83 x 1.4444 = $1,014.80

- Bet 2 Loses: -$298.17

- Net Profit: $1,014.80 - $1,000 = $14.80

Scenario 2: Raptors Win or Lose by 22 Points or Fewer

- Bet 2 Wins: $298.17 x 3.4000 = $1,013.78

- Bet 1 Loses: -$701.83

- Net Profit: $1,013.78 - $1,000 = $13.78

Profit Margin: The profit in either scenario represents approximately 1.4% of the total stake.

Conclusion

This analysis indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Memphis Grizzlies. By placing opposing bets on alternate spreads with different bookmakers, there appears to be an opportunity to secure a small profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should ensure they understand the risks and are compliant with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction.

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