NBA First Half Alternate Totals Arbitrage Opportunity: Portland vs. Dallas (ROI: 75.5%)
Arbitrage opportunity in NBA game on Dec 28, 2024, involves FanDuel's Over 121.5 at +440 and DraftKings' Under 121.5 at +160, enabling a $755 profit on a $1,000 stake.
Introduction
An interesting arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving the upcoming NBA game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Dallas Mavericks, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 10:12 PM. The focus is on the First Half Alternate Totals market, where discrepancies between bookmakers may present a potential for arbitrage betting.
Analysis
The specific bets in question are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Over 121.5 points in the first half
- Odds: +440 (American), equivalent to 5.40 (Decimal)
- Stake: $325
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Under 121.5 points in the first half
- Odds: +160 (American), equivalent to 2.60 (Decimal)
- Stake: $675
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.
To assess the potential arbitrage, we calculate the possible outcomes:
Scenario 1: First half total over 121.5 points
Bet 1 wins:
- Payout: $325 x 5.40 = $1,755
Bet 2 loses:
- Loss: -$675
Net profit: $1,755 - $1,000 = $755
Scenario 2: First half total under 121.5 points
Bet 2 wins:
- Payout: $675 x 2.60 = $1,755
Bet 1 loses:
- Loss: -$325
Net profit: $1,755 - $1,000 = $755
In both scenarios, the net profit is $755 on a $1,000 total stake, indicating a 75.5% return on investment.
Discussion
The calculated outcomes suggest a significant arbitrage opportunity in sports betting. The discrepancy in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings for the same market can create a situation where a bettor profits regardless of the game's outcome. The total implied probability of both bets is calculated as follows:
Implied probability for Bet 1:
- (1 / 5.40) x 100% ≈ 18.52%
Implied probability for Bet 2:
- (1 / 2.60) x 100% ≈ 38.46%
Total implied probability: 18.52% + 38.46% = 56.98%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates the potential for an arbitrage betting opportunity.
However, several factors should be carefully considered:
- Market Efficiency: Such a large odds discrepancy is unusual in the sports betting market, especially between major bookmakers.
- Odds Validity: Odds can change rapidly, and outdated or incorrect odds may invalidate the arbitrage.
- Bookmaker Policies: Terms and conditions, including policies on palpable errors or maximum payouts, could affect the bet's validity.
- Risk of Void Bets: If one bet is voided or canceled, the arbitrage collapses, and the bettor may face a significant loss on the remaining bet.
- Stake Limitations: High stakes on certain markets may be restricted by the bookmaker.
- Event Timing: The event is over a year away, increasing the possibility of unforeseen changes.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potentially profitable arbitrage betting opportunity in the NBA First Half Alternate Totals market. A net profit of $755 on a $1,000 stake represents a substantial return. However, caution is advised due to the unusual odds discrepancy and potential risks associated with bookmaker policies and market volatility.
Bettors interested in arbitrage betting should thoroughly verify all details, consider the possible risks, and stay informed about any changes in the sports betting market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Betting involves risk, and individuals should exercise discretion and consider their own circumstances before engaging in any betting activities.