NBA Arbitrage: Trail Blazers vs. Jazz December 2024
Introduction
The following analysis explores a recently identified arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market. Specifically, we'll examine the NBA matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 10:12 PM. This analysis aims to objectively assess the potential of a risk-free profit through arbitrage betting by evaluating the bets placed with two different bookmakers.
Analysis
We have two bets placed on the same game but opposite outcomes in the alternate totals market:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Under 219.5 points
- Odds: +140
- Stake: $433.07
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Totals
- Outcome: Over 219.5 points
- Odds: -120
- Stake: $566.93
These bets cover all possible outcomes for the total points scored, with no overlap or gaps, ensuring one bet will win while the other loses.
Calculations
1. Potential Payouts
Bet 1 (Under 219.5 at +140 odds):
- Total Payout = Stake × (1 + Odds/100)
- Total Payout = $433.07 × (1 + 140/100) = $1,039.37
Bet 2 (Over 219.5 at -120 odds):
- Total Payout = Stake × (1 + 100/|Odds|)
- Total Payout = $566.93 × (1 + 100/120) = $1,039.37
2. Net Profit in Each Scenario
Scenario A: Total Points Under 219.5
- Win from Bet 1: $1,039.37
- Loss from Bet 2: -$566.93
- Net Profit = $1,039.37 - $566.93 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = -$527.56
Correction: The net profit calculation should consider only the total payout minus the total stakes.
- Net Profit = $1,039.37 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = $39.37
Scenario B: Total Points Over 219.5
- Win from Bet 2: $1,039.37
- Loss from Bet 1: -$433.07
- Net Profit = $1,039.37 - $433.07 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = -$393.70
Correction: Adjusting the calculation:
- Net Profit = $1,039.37 - Total Stakes ($1,000) = $39.37
3. Return on Investment (ROI)
- Total Investment: $1,000 ($433.07 + $566.93)
- Net Profit: $39.37
- ROI = (Net Profit / Total Investment) × 100% = 3.94%
Discussion
The calculations indicate a potential arbitrage opportunity with a guaranteed profit of $39.37, regardless of the game's outcome. By placing opposing bets on the total points scored, the bettor is hedging against all possible scenarios, effectively locking in a profit.
Key Considerations:
- Market Consistency: Both bets are on the 'Alternate Totals' market for Over/Under 219.5 points. It's crucial that both bookmakers use the same rules for this market, including how overtime is handled.
- Odds Verification: The odds must remain constant from the time of calculation to the point of placing the bets. Any fluctuation could affect the potential profit.
- Stake Accuracy: The stakes have been calculated to balance the bets appropriately. Any variation could impact the arbitrage margin.
Potential Risks
While the arbitrage opportunity appears sound, there are inherent risks:
- Odds Movement: Rapid changes in odds could occur before both bets are placed, potentially nullifying the arbitrage margin.
- Bet Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits for certain markets, which could prevent placing the required amount to achieve the expected profit.
- Market Restrictions: Terms and conditions at either bookmaker might exclude certain bets from arbitrage or impose restrictions that affect the outcome.
- Technical Issues: Potential delays or errors in bet placement due to technical problems could result in only one bet being accepted.
- Bookmaker Policies: Some bookmakers may limit or close accounts suspected of arbitrage betting, affecting future betting opportunities.
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Conclusion
The analysis demonstrates a calculated arbitrage opportunity in the NBA game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz. By strategically placing opposing bets on the total points scored, a profit of approximately $39.37 on a $1,000 investment is achievable, reflecting an ROI of 3.94%. This opportunity hinges on consistent market rules, stable odds, and adherence to bookmaker policies.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before engaging in any betting activity. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations regarding gambling.