NBA Arbitrage: Thunder vs Knicks Points Bet (ROI: 56.1%)
(ROI: 56.1%) Arbitrage bet for Thunder vs Knicks on Jan 3, 2025: Bet $141.94 on under 216.5 points at DraftKings (+1000 odds), $858.06 on over 216.5 at BetRivers (-122 odds). Both scenarios yield $561.34 profit, but risk: odd errors, void bets, odds change, stake limits.
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New York Knicks scheduled for January 3, 2025. This opportunity involves placing two bets on opposing outcomes with different bookmakers, potentially securing a profit regardless of the game's result.
Analysis
The proposed bets are as follows:
Bet 1: Wagering $141.94 on the total points being under 216.5 at DraftKings with odds of +1000 (decimal odds of 11.00).
Bet 2: Wagering $858.06 on the total points being over 216.5 at BetRivers with odds of -122 (decimal odds of approximately 1.8197).
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.
To assess whether this constitutes a valid arbitrage, we'll calculate the potential outcomes:
Scenario 1: Total Points Under 216.5
- Bet 1 wins: Potential return is $141.94 × 11.00 = $1,561.34.
- Bet 2 loses: Loss of $858.06.
- Net profit: $1,561.34 (return) - $1,000 (total stake) = $561.34.
Scenario 2: Total Points Over 216.5
- Bet 1 loses: Loss of $141.94.
- Bet 2 wins: Potential return is $858.06 × 1.8197 ≈ $1,561.34.
- Net profit: $1,561.34 (return) - $1,000 (total stake) = $561.34.
In both scenarios, the net profit appears to be $561.34.
Discussion
Despite the mathematical calculations suggesting a profitable outcome, several factors warrant careful consideration:
Odds Discrepancy: The significant difference in odds between the two bets is unusual for the same market and event. Odds of +1000 for an under 216.5 points market suggest a potential error by the bookmaker.
Bookmaker Terms: Bookmakers often include clauses in their terms and conditions allowing them to void bets placed due to obvious errors or discrepancies in the odds (known as palpable errors).
Risk of Void Bets: If one bookmaker voids the bet due to an error, the opposing bet remains active, leading to potential losses rather than guaranteed profit.
Market Fluctuations: Odds can change rapidly. There's a risk that by the time both bets are placed, one of the odds may have adjusted, eliminating the arbitrage opportunity.
Stake Limitations: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits or restrictions on certain markets, possibly preventing the placement of the full desired amount.
Conclusion
While the initial calculations present a seemingly profitable arbitrage opportunity, practical considerations introduce significant uncertainties. The unusual odds suggest a potential error, and bookmaker policies may result in bets being voided. It's important to thoroughly evaluate these factors and understand the inherent risks involved in this situation.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Individuals should exercise caution and consider the risks before making any betting decisions.