NBA Arbitrage: Raptors vs. Hawks Over/Under 242.5 (ROI: 98.6%)
(ROI: 98.6%) Arbitrage opportunity in NBA game Raptors vs Hawks on Dec 29, 2024. Bet 1: FanDuel Under 242.5 at +310, Bet 2: DraftKings Over 242.5 at +285. Potential profit due to implied probability sum under 100%. Consider market limits, odds movement, and regulations.
Introduction
A new arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market. This opportunity involves the upcoming NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks, scheduled for December 29, 2024, at 6:10 pm. The focus is on the Alternate Totals market for Over/Under 242.5 points, offering potential for arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two bets have been identified across different bookmakers:
Bet 1
Bookmaker: FanDuel
Market: Alternate Totals
Outcome: Under 242.5 points
Odds: +310
Stake: $484.28
Bet 2
Bookmaker: DraftKings
Market: Alternate Totals
Outcome: Over 242.5 points
Odds: +285
Stake: $515.72
To assess the potential arbitrage opportunity, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
Bet 1 (Under 242.5):
Decimal Odds = (310 + 100) / 100 = 4.10
Bet 2 (Over 242.5):
Decimal Odds = (285 + 100) / 100 = 3.85
The implied probabilities are then calculated:
Bet 1: 1 / 4.10 ≈ 24.39%
Bet 2: 1 / 3.85 ≈ 25.97%
The sum of implied probabilities is approximately 50.36%, which is less than 100%. This indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in sports betting.
Potential returns are calculated for each scenario:
Scenario 1: Under 242.5 points
Payout from Bet 1: $484.28 × 4.10 = $1,985.55
Net Profit: $1,985.55 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $985.55
Scenario 2: Over 242.5 points
Payout from Bet 2: $515.72 × 3.85 = $1,986.02
Net Profit: $1,986.02 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $986.02
Discussion
While the mathematical calculations suggest a potential profit from this arbitrage betting opportunity, several factors should be considered:
Market Limits and Restrictions: Bookmakers may have betting limits on certain markets, especially on alternate totals with higher odds. The full stakes of $484.28 and $515.72 may not be accepted.
Odds Movement: Odds can change rapidly. Placing both bets simultaneously is crucial to lock in the quoted odds and secure the potential arbitrage.
Market Availability: High total points markets like Over/Under 242.5 may have lower liquidity and could be subject to changes or withdrawal by the bookmakers.
Potential Errors: Bookmakers might void bets if there are palpable errors in the odds offered. Verifying the odds before placing bets is essential.
Regulatory Considerations: Betting should comply with local laws and regulations. Frequent arbitrage betting may lead to account scrutiny or restrictions from bookmakers.
Settlement Rules: Differences in rules regarding overtime inclusion or bet settlement between bookmakers could affect the outcome. Confirming these details is important.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Atlanta Hawks. By carefully placing opposing bets on the Alternate Totals market, there is a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the game's outcome. However, it is important to consider the associated risks, including market limitations, odds fluctuations, and regulatory factors. Conducting thorough due diligence and remaining informed about the terms and conditions of each bookmaker is advisable.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risks, and outcomes are not guaranteed. Individuals should make decisions based on their own judgment and are encouraged to consult professional advisors where appropriate.