NBA Arbitrage: Raptors vs. Grizzlies December 2024
Introduction
A potential arbitrage betting opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for the upcoming NBA matchup between the Toronto Raptors and the Memphis Grizzlies on December 26, 2024. This analysis explores the details of this opportunity, focusing on the odds and stakes available from two different bookmakers, and examines whether it constitutes a viable arbitrage bet.
Detailed Analysis
The first bet is offered by BetMGM under the market of alternate spreads. The bet is on the Toronto Raptors with a handicap of +24.5 points at odds of +120 (American odds). This means that for every $100 wagered, there is a potential profit of $120 if the Raptors either win the game outright or lose by fewer than 25 points. The proposed stake for this bet is $461.44.
The second bet is available from FanDuel in the standard spreads market. The wager is on the Memphis Grizzlies with a handicap of -24.5 points at odds of -113. This indicates that a bettor needs to stake $113 to potentially win a profit of $100, provided the Grizzlies win by more than 24.5 points—that is, by 25 points or more. The suggested stake for this bet is $538.56.
Collectively, these two bets cover all possible outcomes concerning the point spread for this game. Either the Grizzlies win by 25 points or more, or the Raptors win the game or lose by 24 points or fewer.
Discussion of Potential Outcomes
To assess the viability of this arbitrage betting opportunity, it is essential to calculate the potential returns and net profits for all possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Memphis Grizzlies win by 25 points or more. In this case, the bet on the Grizzlies (-24.5) at odds of -113 wins. The potential profit from this bet is calculated as follows: Profit = (Stake / Odds Absolute Value) × 100 = ($538.56 / 113) × 100 ≈ $476.59. The total return is the stake plus the profit, amounting to approximately $1,015.15. The bet on the Raptors loses, resulting in a loss of the $461.44 stake. The net profit is the total return minus the combined stakes: $1,015.15 - ($461.44 + $538.56) = $15.15.
Scenario 2: Toronto Raptors win, or lose by 24 points or fewer. Here, the bet on the Raptors (+24.5) at odds of +120 wins. The potential profit is calculated as: Profit = (Stake × Odds / 100) = $461.44 × (120 / 100) = $553.73. The total return is $461.44 + $553.73 = $1,015.17. The bet on the Grizzlies loses, resulting in a loss of the $538.56 stake. The net profit is: $1,015.17 - ($461.44 + $538.56) = $15.17.
In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $15 on a total investment of $1,000, yielding a return of around 1.5%. This indicates that the arbitrage bet covers all outcomes and offers a consistent profit margin regardless of the game's result.
Conclusion
The analysis suggests that this betting opportunity constitutes an arbitrage bet with potential profit in the sports betting market. By placing calculated stakes on opposing outcomes with different bookmakers, bettors can secure a net profit irrespective of the game's final score. It is crucial to verify the odds and stakes at the time of placing the bets, as changes in the market can affect the viability of the arbitrage. Additionally, bettors should be mindful of each bookmaker's terms and conditions, including any limitations or rules that may impact the bets.
Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their circumstances before engaging in betting activities. Always gamble responsibly and be aware of the regulations in your jurisdiction.