NBA Arbitrage: Pelicans vs. Rockets

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving the NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM. This potential arbitrage betting situation involves placing two opposing bets on alternative point spreads across different bookmakers, which may result in a profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Analysis

The proposed bets are as follows:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: DraftKings
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Outcome: Houston Rockets -20.5 (Rockets to win by 21 points or more)
• Odds: +1100 (Decimal odds: 12.00)
• Stake: $104.48

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Outcome: New Orleans Pelicans +20.5 (Pelicans to win or lose by 20 points or fewer)
• Odds: -250 (Decimal odds: 1.40)
• Stake: $895.52

The total combined stake is $1,000 ($104.48 + $895.52). These bets cover all possible outcomes related to the specified point spread, as half-point differences are not possible in basketball scoring.

Discussion

Analyzing the potential outcomes:

Scenario 1: Houston Rockets win by 21 points or more

• Bet 1 Wins: The payout is calculated as $104.48 × 12.00 = $1,253.76. The profit from this bet is $1,253.76 - $104.48 = $1,149.28.
• Bet 2 Loses: The stake of $895.52 is lost.
• Net Profit: $1,149.28 (profit from Bet 1) - $895.52 (loss from Bet 2) = $253.76.

Scenario 2: Pelicans win or lose by 20 points or fewer

• Bet 2 Wins: The payout is calculated as $895.52 × 1.40 = $1,253.73. The profit from this bet is $1,253.73 - $895.52 = $358.21.
• Bet 1 Loses: The stake of $104.48 is lost.
• Net Profit: $358.21 (profit from Bet 2) - $104.48 (loss from Bet 1) = $253.73.

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $253.75. This potential arbitrage betting opportunity arises because the collective bets cover all possible outcomes concerning the point spread, with stakes adjusted to balance the returns.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that placing these two bets with the specified stakes and odds may result in a profit regardless of the game's outcome. This situation demonstrates how arbitrage betting can potentially exploit discrepancies in odds between different bookmakers in the sports betting market. However, bettors should consider factors such as changes in odds, bet acceptance policies, betting limits, and the terms and conditions set by each bookmaker.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting. Individuals should ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction and understand the risks involved before participating in any form of betting or gambling.