NBA Arbitrage: Lauri Markkanen Three-Point Bets
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market for an upcoming NBA game. This memo provides an objective analysis of the bet involving player Lauri Markkanen in the matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Portland Trail Blazers scheduled for December 26, 2024.
Analysis
Event Details:
- League: NBA
- Date & Time: December 26, 2024, 10:12 PM
- Teams: Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Player: Lauri Markkanen
Bet Details:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Player Threes (Player Prop)
- Outcome: Over 3.5 Three-Pointers
- Odds: +120 (Decimal Odds: 2.20)
- Proposed Stake: $505.62
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Player Threes (Player Prop)
- Outcome: Under 3.5 Three-Pointers
- Odds: +125 (Decimal Odds: 2.25)
- Proposed Stake: $494.38
Conversion of Moneyline Odds to Decimal Odds:
- Odds of +120 convert to 2.20 in decimal odds.
- Odds of +125 convert to 2.25 in decimal odds.
Implied Probabilities:
- Over 3.5 Threes: 1 / 2.20 ≈ 45.45%
- Under 3.5 Threes: 1 / 2.25 ≈ 44.44%
- Total Implied Probability: 45.45% + 44.44% = 89.89%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, suggesting a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
Stake Allocation:
To evaluate the potential outcome, the stakes are allocated to ensure that the payouts are equal regardless of the outcome.
Potential Payouts:
- If Over 3.5 Threes wins:
Payout: $505.62 x 2.20 = $1,112.36
Net Profit: $1,112.36 - $1,000 (Total Stake) = $112.36
- If Under 3.5 Threes wins:
Payout: $494.38 x 2.25 = $1,111.36
Net Profit: $1,111.36 - $1,000 (Total Stake) = $111.36
There is a slight discrepancy in the net profit due to rounding, but both scenarios yield a profit exceeding $111.
Return on Investment (ROI):
- Net Profit: Approximately $111 to $112
- Total Stake: $1,000
- ROI: Around 11%
Implications:
By placing opposing bets on the over and under outcomes with different bookmakers offering favorable odds, there is potential for a positive return regardless of the game's result. This scenario exemplifies an arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity in the NBA player prop market involving Lauri Markkanen's three-point performance. By carefully calculating stakes and considering the odds from different bookmakers, there is a possibility for a positive return on investment.
Disclaimer
This memo is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Betting involves risks, and individuals should consult with professional advisors before making any decisions.