NBA Arbitrage: Keegan Murray Rebounds Opportunity

Introduction

This memo provides an objective analysis of a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting, specifically within the NBA matchup between the Sacramento Kings and the Detroit Pistons scheduled for December 26, 2024. The focus is on the player rebounds market for Keegan Murray, with two opposing bets available across different bookmakers.

Analysis

The proposed arbitrage involves the following bets:

• Bet 1: Wager on Under 8.5 rebounds for Keegan Murray at DraftKings with odds of +110, staking $507.04.
• Bet 2: Wager on Over 8.5 rebounds for Keegan Murray at FanDuel with odds of +116, staking $492.96.

The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.

Calculating Implied Probabilities:

• Bet 1 (+110 odds): Implied probability = 100 / (110 + 100) ≈ 47.62%.
• Bet 2 (+116 odds): Implied probability = 100 / (116 + 100) ≈ 46.30%.

The combined implied probability is approximately 93.92%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

Potential Returns and Profit:

• If Bet 1 wins (Under 8.5 rebounds):
  • Return from Bet 1: $507.04 × (110/100) = $557.74 in profit.
  • Total return: $507.04 (stake) + $557.74 (profit) = $1,064.78.
  • Loss from Bet 2: $492.96 (stake).
  • Net profit: $1,064.78 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $64.78.
• If Bet 2 wins (Over 8.5 rebounds):
  • Return from Bet 2: $492.96 × (116/100) = $571.84 in profit.
  • Total return: $492.96 (stake) + $571.84 (profit) = $1,064.80.
  • Loss from Bet 1: $507.04 (stake).
  • Net profit: $1,064.80 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $64.80.

The potential profit ranges between $64.78 and $64.80, representing a return of approximately 6.48% on the total investment.

Discussion

This arbitrage betting scenario presents an opportunity to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome, leveraging discrepancies in odds between two bookmakers in the sports betting market. Key considerations include:

• Simultaneous Bet Placement: To capitalize on the arbitrage, both bets should be placed simultaneously to avoid any changes in odds that could affect profitability.
• Verification of Terms: Ensure that both bets are on the identical market and subject to the same terms, including how the bookmakers handle situations like player non-participation or game cancellations.
• Stake Acceptance: Be aware of any betting limits or restrictions that may apply, particularly on player-specific markets where bookmakers might impose lower maximum stakes.
• Risk of Account Limitation: Frequent arbitrage betting can sometimes lead to bookmaker account restrictions, which could impact future betting activities.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates a valid arbitrage betting opportunity in the Keegan Murray rebounds market for the upcoming NBA game between the Sacramento Kings and the Detroit Pistons. By placing opposing bets on the over and under 8.5 rebounds at different bookmakers, there is a calculated potential for a profit of approximately 6.48% on the total stakes, irrespective of the game's outcome. This scenario exemplifies how discrepancies in the sports betting market can be leveraged for arbitrage betting without assuming significant risk.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should engage responsibly and ensure compliance with all legal regulations in their jurisdiction.