NBA Arbitrage: Celtics vs. Pacers Total Points Profit Opportunity (ROI: 85.9%)

Introduction

A recent opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market involving an upcoming NBA game between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers on December 29, 2024. This potential arbitrage situation arises from differing odds offered by two bookmakers on the total points scored in the game.

Detailed Analysis

The bets in question are:

• Bet 1: Wagering on the Under 237.5 points market with FanDuel at odds of +1100, placing a stake of $154.93.
• Bet 2: Wagering on the Over 237.5 points market with DraftKings at odds of -120, placing a stake of $845.07.

The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000.

To assess the potential outcomes, the American odds are converted to decimal odds for simplicity:

• +1100 converts to 12.00 in decimal odds.
• -120 converts to approximately 1.83 in decimal odds.

Calculating Potential Payouts:

• If Under 237.5 points:
  • Potential winnings: $154.93 x 12.00 = $1,859.16
  • Profit: $1,859.16 - $1,000 = $859.16
• If Over 237.5 points:
  • Potential winnings: $845.07 x 1.83 = $1,549.48
  • Profit: $1,549.48 - $1,000 = $549.48

Discussion of Potential Outcomes

This situation presents a scenario where, regardless of the game's total points, there is a positive return on the total investment. The disparity in odds between FanDuel and DraftKings creates an opportunity for an arbitrage bet.

Considerations:

• Market Conditions: It's important to verify that both bets are placed on the same market terms, ensuring no discrepancies in conditions such as overtime inclusion.
• Bookmaker Policies: Review the terms and conditions of both bookmakers, particularly regarding arbitrage betting and bet limits.
• Risk Factors: Be aware of factors such as stake limits, potential bet rejections, and changes in odds between the time of analysis and bet placement.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that this arbitrage opportunity could yield a profit of either $859.16 or $549.48, depending on the game's total points. This outcome is based solely on the provided data and assumes that both bets are accepted and honored by the respective bookmakers under the specified conditions.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own research and judgement. Always gamble responsibly and be aware of the laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.