NBA Arbitrage Alert: Hawks vs. Heat First Half Points (ROI: 14.9%)
Introduction
A recent observation in the sports betting market has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity involving the NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat, scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 pm. The focus is on the First Half Alternate Team Total for the Atlanta Hawks with a point total set at 59.5 points.
Analysis of the Betting Markets
Two different bookmakers are offering contrasting odds on the same market:
- DraftKings offers Over 59.5 points at +270 odds (Decimal Odds: 3.70).
- BetMGM offers Under 59.5 points at -150 odds (Decimal Odds: 1.6667).
By placing proportional bets on both outcomes, there's a possibility to secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome. The stakes are calculated to ensure the total amount wagered sums up to a consistent figure for analysis purposes (e.g., $1,000 total stake).
Calculations of Potential Outcomes
Scenario 1: Atlanta Hawks Score Over 59.5 Points in the First Half
Bet Placed: $310.56 on Over 59.5 points at +270 odds.
Potential Winnings:
- Profit from Bet 1: $310.56 x 2.7 = $838.51
- Total Return: $838.51 (Profit) + $310.56 (Stake) = $1,149.07
Loss from Bet 2: $689.44 stake on Under 59.5 points.
Net Profit: $1,149.07 (Winnings) - $689.44 (Loss) = $149.07
Scenario 2: Atlanta Hawks Score Under 59.5 Points in the First Half
Bet Placed: $689.44 on Under 59.5 points at -150 odds.
Potential Winnings:
- Profit from Bet 2: $689.44 / 1.5 = $459.63
- Total Return: $459.63 (Profit) + $689.44 (Stake) = $1,149.07
Loss from Bet 1: $310.56 stake on Over 59.5 points.
Net Profit: $1,149.07 (Winnings) - $310.56 (Loss) = $838.51
Verification of Arbitrage Opportunity
Implied Probabilities
Calculating the implied probabilities based on the provided odds:
- Over 59.5 points (+270): 100 / (270 + 100) = 27.03%
- Under 59.5 points (-150): 150 / (150 + 100) = 60%
Total Implied Probability: 27.03% + 60% = 87.03%
Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this indicates a potential arbitrage situation.
Arbitrage Percentage Using Decimal Odds
Calculating the arbitrage percentage to confirm the opportunity:
- Over 59.5 points (3.70): 1 / 3.70 = 0.2703
- Under 59.5 points (1.6667): 1 / 1.6667 = 0.6
Total Arbitrage Percentage: 0.2703 + 0.6 = 0.8703 (87.03%)
A total percentage below 100% confirms the presence of an arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion of Potential Outcomes
The analysis suggests that by placing calculated stakes on both outcomes, there's a mathematical possibility of a positive return regardless of the result. This stems from the discrepancy in odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same market.
It's crucial to ensure that both bets are placed on identical markets with consistent rules across both platforms. Any variation in market terms or conditions could affect the outcome of the bets.
Conclusion
The disparity in odds between DraftKings and BetMGM for the Atlanta Hawks' first-half point total at 59.5 points presents a theoretical arbitrage opportunity. By carefully analyzing the odds and calculating the appropriate stakes, there's an indication of a potential profit irrespective of the game's first-half score.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in gambling activities. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before making any betting decisions.