NBA Arbitrage Alert: Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers (ROI: 122.8%)

Introduction

A fresh arbitrage betting opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NBA game between the Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers scheduled on December 29, 2024, at 6:10 pm. This opportunity involves placing bets on alternate team totals for the Boston Celtics at two different bookmakers, FanDuel and DraftKings, with a point line set at 113.5 points.

Analysis

The details of the bets are as follows:

Bet 1:

- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Outcome: Under 113.5 points
- Odds (American): +1300
- Decimal Odds: 14.00
- Stake: $159.16

Bet 2:

- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Outcome: Over 113.5 points
- Odds (American): -165
- Decimal Odds: 1.60606
- Stake: $840.84

The total stake amounts to $1,000 ($159.16 + $840.84).

Given that basketball scores are whole numbers and no team can score half points, there are two possible outcomes:

1. The Boston Celtics score 113 points or fewer.
   - Bet 1 wins; Bet 2 loses.
2. The Boston Celtics score 114 points or more.
   - Bet 2 wins; Bet 1 loses.

Calculations for each scenario are as follows:

Scenario 1: Celtics score 113 or fewer points

- Bet 1 Return: $159.16 × 14.00 = $2,228.24
- Net Profit from Bet 1: $2,228.24 - $159.16 = $2,069.08
- Loss on Bet 2: $840.84
- Total Net Profit: $2,069.08 - $840.84 = $1,228.24
- Return on Investment (ROI): 122.82%

Scenario 2: Celtics score 114 or more points

- Bet 2 Return: $840.84 × 1.60606 ≈ $1,350
- Net Profit from Bet 2: $1,350 - $840.84 = $509.16
- Loss on Bet 1: $159.16
- Total Net Profit: $509.16 - $159.16 = $350
- Return on Investment (ROI): 35%

Discussion

The analysis indicates that in both scenarios, a net profit is achieved, which is characteristic of an arbitrage betting opportunity in sports betting. The higher profit is realized if the Celtics score under 113.5 points, yielding a profit of $1,228.24. If they score over 113.5 points, the profit is $350.

The implied probabilities based on the decimal odds are:

- Bet 1 (Under 113.5 points): 1 / 14.00 ≈ 7.14%
- Bet 2 (Over 113.5 points): 1 / 1.60606 ≈ 62.23%
- Total Implied Probability: 69.37%

Since the total implied probability is less than 100%, this suggests an arbitrage opportunity.

However, several factors should be considered:

1. Odds Accuracy: The significant discrepancy between the odds for the two bets is unusual. It is important to verify that the odds are current and correctly listed.
2. Stake Limits: Bookmakers may impose maximum stake limits, especially on bets with high odds. Confirm that the desired stakes can be placed.
3. Market Availability: Alternate team totals may have restricted availability or liquidity. Ensure both bets can be placed as specified.
4. Terms and Conditions: Review the bookmakers' policies, as some may restrict or prohibit arbitrage betting and could void bets if detected.
5. Event Uncertainty: The game is scheduled over a year in advance. Factors such as schedule changes or team roster adjustments could affect the event.

Conclusion

The analysis demonstrates that, based on the provided data, this arbitrage betting opportunity offers a potential profit regardless of the game's outcome. The existence of a profit in both scenarios aligns with the principles of arbitrage betting in sports betting markets. It is crucial to verify all details and consider the highlighted factors before proceeding.

This memo serves to inform on the analysis of the identified opportunity and does not constitute a recommendation or guarantee of profit.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in arbitrage betting. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should consult with a professional advisor before making any betting decisions. The information provided is believed to be accurate at the time of writing but is subject to change.