Navy vs Oklahoma Arbitrage Betting Opportunity

Introduction

A recent analysis has identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming college football game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners scheduled for December 27, 2024. This involves strategically placing bets on alternate point spreads offered by different bookmakers to possibly secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Analysis

The proposed arbitrage involves two separate bets:

Bet 1:

• Bookmaker: FanDuel
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Selection: Navy Midshipmen +12.5
• Odds: +142 (Decimal odds: 2.42)
• Stake: $426.54

Bet 2:

• Bookmaker: BetMGM
• Market: Alternate Spreads
• Selection: Oklahoma Sooners -12.5
• Odds: -125 (Decimal odds: 1.80)
• Stake: $573.46

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000. The point spread of +/-12.5 ensures that there are only two possible outcomes without the possibility of a tie due to the half-point spread.

Discussion

Scenario 1: Navy Midshipmen Cover +12.5

If the Navy Midshipmen win the game or lose by 12 points or fewer, Bet 1 wins while Bet 2 loses.

• Return from Bet 1: $426.54 x 2.42 = $1,032.41
• Profit from Bet 1: $1,032.41 - $426.54 = $605.87
• Net Profit: $605.87 - $573.46 (loss from Bet 2) = $32.41

Scenario 2: Oklahoma Sooners Cover -12.5

If the Oklahoma Sooners win by 13 points or more, Bet 2 wins while Bet 1 loses.

• Return from Bet 2: $573.46 x 1.80 = $1,032.23
• Profit from Bet 2: $1,032.23 - $573.46 = $458.77
• Net Profit: $458.77 - $426.54 (loss from Bet 1) = $32.23

In both scenarios, the net profit is approximately $32, demonstrating the potential for a positive return regardless of the game's outcome. This situation arises due to the differences in odds provided by two bookmakers on the same event and market but opposite outcomes.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that by carefully placing the described bets on the alternate point spreads for the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners, there is a possibility of securing a profit irrespective of the final score. This example highlights how discrepancies in betting odds across different bookmakers can create opportunities in sports betting for arbitrage strategies.

Disclaimer

This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Betting involves risks, and individuals should consider their circumstances and gamble responsibly. No guarantees are made regarding the outcome of any bets, and this should not be considered financial advice.