Misleading Arbitrage Alert: Mercer vs. Georgia State (ROI: 24.2%)
Introduction
A recent opportunity has surfaced involving a potential arbitrage bet on an upcoming NCAA basketball game between the Mercer Bears and the Georgia State Panthers, scheduled for December 28, 2024. This analysis examines two bets placed on alternate spreads with different bookmakers, aiming to assess the viability of a risk-free profit through arbitrage betting.
Analysis of the Bets
Event Details:
- Sport: NCAA Men's Basketball (NCAAB)
- Teams: Mercer Bears (Away) vs. Georgia State Panthers (Home)
- Date: December 28, 2024
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spread
- Selection: Mercer Bears -1.5
- Odds: +185 (Decimal Odds: 2.85)
- Stake: $435.64
- Bet Details: Wager on Mercer Bears to win by at least 2 points.
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Spread
- Selection: Georgia State Panthers +1.5
- Odds: +120 (Decimal Odds: 2.20)
- Stake: $564.36
- Bet Details: Wager on Georgia State Panthers to win outright or lose by no more than 1 point.
Possible Outcomes and Calculations
To determine the viability of this arbitrage opportunity, it is essential to assess all possible game outcomes and calculate the potential profits or losses.
Outcome 1: Mercer Bears Win by 2 or More Points
Bet 1 Wins, Bet 2 Loses
- Bet 1 Winnings: $435.64 x 2.85 = $1,241.57
- Bet 1 Profit: $1,241.57 - $435.64 = $805.93
- Bet 2 Loss: -$564.36
- Net Profit: $805.93 - $564.36 = $241.57
- Total Stakes: $435.64 + $564.36 = $1,000.00
- Return on Investment (ROI): ($241.57 / $1,000.00) x 100% = 24.16% loss
Outcome 2: Mercer Bears Win by Exactly 1 Point or Georgia State Panthers Win
Bet 1 Loses, Bet 2 Wins
- Bet 2 Winnings: $564.36 x 2.20 = $1,241.59
- Bet 2 Profit: $1,241.59 - $564.36 = $677.23
- Bet 1 Loss: -$435.64
- Net Profit: $677.23 - $435.64 = $241.59
- Total Stakes: $435.64 + $564.36 = $1,000.00
- Return on Investment (ROI): ($241.59 / $1,000.00) x 100% = 24.16% loss
Discussion of Implications
The calculations indicate that in both possible outcomes, the bettor would incur a significant loss relative to the total stakes. The net profit after accounting for winnings and losses amounts to approximately $241.57 or $241.59, while the total amount wagered is $1,000. This results in a net loss of around $758 in either scenario.
The primary reasons for this outcome are:
- Lack of Overlapping Wins: There is no scenario where both bets win simultaneously, which is essential for a successful arbitrage opportunity.
- One Bet Always Losing: Regardless of the game result, one of the bets will inevitably lose, and the winnings from the winning bet do not cover the losses incurred.
- Imbalance in Odds and Stakes: The odds and stake amounts are not favorable enough to offset the losses from the losing bet and secure a profit.
Conclusion
Based on the analysis, this betting situation does not present a valid or risk-free arbitrage opportunity. The structure of the bets leads to a guaranteed loss, as the potential winnings are insufficient to cover the total stakes and losses from the opposing bet. Arbitrage betting typically relies on discrepancies in odds that allow for a profit regardless of the event outcome, which is not the case here.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activities. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting a professional before making any financial decisions related to sports betting.