Memphis vs Toronto NBA Arbitrage Opportunity
Introduction
This memo presents an analysis of a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the upcoming NBA game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors. The game is scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 8:10 PM, with the Grizzlies playing at home. The objective is to evaluate the provided bets objectively to determine if an arbitrage betting opportunity exists.
Analysis
The following are the details of the two bets under consideration:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Bet: Toronto Raptors +27.5 points
- Odds: -175
- Stake: $640.52
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetRivers
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Bet: Memphis Grizzlies -27.5 points
- Odds: +180
- Stake: $359.48
The total amount staked is $1,000 ($640.52 on Bet 1 and $359.48 on Bet 2). The bets are placed on opposite outcomes with different point spreads and odds, which is a common approach in arbitrage betting within sports betting markets.
Discussion
To assess the potential outcomes, consider the two scenarios based on the game's final score:
Scenario 1: Memphis Grizzlies win by 28 points or more.
In this case:
- Bet 1 (Raptors +27.5): This bet loses because the Raptors lose by more than 27.5 points.
- Bet 2 (Grizzlies -27.5): This bet wins because the Grizzlies win by more than 27.5 points.
Calculating the return for Bet 2:
Potential Profit = Stake × (Odds / 100) = $359.48 × (180 / 100) = $647.06
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $359.48 + $647.06 = $1,006.54
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,006.54 - $1,000 = $6.54
Scenario 2: Memphis Grizzlies win by 27 points or fewer, the Raptors win, or the game ties.
In this case:
- Bet 1 (Raptors +27.5): This bet wins because the Raptors do not lose by more than 27.5 points.
- Bet 2 (Grizzlies -27.5): This bet loses because the Grizzlies do not win by more than 27.5 points.
Calculating the return for Bet 1:
Potential Profit = Stake / (Odds Absolute Value / 100) = $640.52 / (175 / 100) = $366.01
Total Return = Stake + Profit = $640.52 + $366.01 = $1,006.53
Net Profit = Total Return - Total Stakes = $1,006.53 - $1,000 = $6.53
The analysis shows that in either scenario, there is a positive net profit of approximately $6.53 to $6.54. This is indicative of an arbitrage opportunity, where differing odds in the sports betting market allow for a profit regardless of the game's outcome.
Conclusion
The objective evaluation of the provided bets suggests that there is a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in this NBA game. By strategically placing bets on both outcomes with precise stakes and odds, a net profit may be achievable. It is important to verify all details, including current odds and bookmaker terms, as fluctuations in the sports betting market can affect the viability of such opportunities.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risk, and individuals should engage responsibly. The information provided should be independently verified before making any betting decisions.