Maryland Terrapins Bet Arbitrage Analysis
Live Update: Analysis of Potential Arbitrage Betting Opportunity
Dear Readers,
We have come across a fresh betting opportunity in the sports betting market involving a college basketball game in the NCAAB league. Below is an objective analysis of this potential arbitrage betting opportunity.
Introduction
The upcoming game features the Maryland Terrapins against the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks, scheduled to start on December 28, 2024, at 12:00 PM. The betting markets under consideration are the Alternate Team Totals for the Maryland Terrapins.
Detailed Analysis
Bet 1 Details (FanDuel):
- Market: Alternate Team Totals
- Outcome: Maryland Terrapins Over 95.5 points
- Odds: +125 (Decimal Odds: 2.25)
- Stake: $488.64
Bet 2 Details (DraftKings):
- Market: Alternate Team Totals
- Outcome: Maryland Terrapins Under 95.5 points
- Odds: -115 (Decimal Odds: 1.8696)
- Stake: $511.36
Total Stake: $1,000
Potential Outcomes
Scenario 1: Maryland Terrapins Score Over 95.5 Points (96 or more)
- Bet 1 Wins: Payout = $488.64 × 2.25 = $1,099.44
- Bet 2 Loses: Loss = -$511.36
- Net Profit: $1,099.44 - $1,000 = $99.44
Scenario 2: Maryland Terrapins Score Under 95.5 Points (95 or fewer)
- Bet 1 Loses: Loss = -$488.64
- Bet 2 Wins: Payout = $511.36 × 1.8696 ≈ $956.80
- Net Loss: $956.80 - $1,000 = -$43.20
Discussion
The analysis reveals that the outcome of these bets is dependent on the game's result, leading to a potential profit in one scenario and a loss in the other. This indicates that the bets do not form a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. A true arbitrage bet should guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.
Calculating the implied probabilities:
- Bet 1 Implied Probability: 100 / (125 + 100) = 44.44%
- Bet 2 Implied Probability: 115 / (115 + 100) = 53.49%
- Total Implied Probability: 44.44% + 53.49% = 97.93%
While the total implied probability is less than 100%, suggesting a theoretical arbitrage, the current stake allocation does not yield a risk-free profit. Proper adjustment of stakes is necessary to potentially create an arbitrage situation.
Stake Adjustment for Arbitrage
To attempt to create a risk-free arbitrage, stakes need to be adjusted so that the net profit is equal in both scenarios. Using the arbitrage formula, we can recalculate the stakes:
Let S1 be the stake on Bet 1 and S2 be the stake on Bet 2, with S1 + S2 = $1,000.
Setting the net profits equal:
(S1 × (2.25 - 1)) - S2 = (S2 × (1.8696 - 1)) - S1
Simplifying, we find:
S1 ≈ $454.02
S2 = $1,000 - $454.02 = $545.98
With these adjusted stakes, the potential net profits are approximately equal in both scenarios:
- Scenario 1 Net Profit: ($454.02 × 2.25) - $1,000 = $18.55
- Scenario 2 Net Profit: ($545.98 × 1.8696) - $1,000 ≈ $18.55
This adjustment results in a small, nearly risk-free profit in both scenarios.
Conclusion
The initial stakes of $488.64 on Bet 1 and $511.36 on Bet 2 do not constitute a valid arbitrage betting opportunity, as they result in an uneven profit and potential loss. By adjusting the stakes to approximately $454.02 on Bet 1 and $545.98 on Bet 2, it is possible to create a near arbitrage situation with a minimal profit in either outcome. However, factors such as transaction costs, betting limits, and rapidly changing odds must be considered.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting and arbitrage betting involve risks, and it is important to bet responsibly and be aware of all the terms and conditions involved.