Lobos vs. Rams Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 16.3%)
Introduction
An arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for an upcoming college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the Colorado State Rams on December 28, 2024. This analysis will examine the potential bet involving two bookmakers, FanDuel and BetMGM, focusing on alternate point spreads to determine the viability of a risk-free profit.
Analysis
The proposed bets are as follows:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: New Mexico Lobos -2.5
- Odds: +178 (American odds)
- Stake: $418.41
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spreads
- Outcome: Colorado State Rams +2.5
- Odds: +100 (American odds)
- Stake: $581.59
Total Stake: $1,000 ($418.41 + $581.59)
To assess the arbitrage potential, we'll calculate the outcomes for all possible results of the game.
Discussion
Scenario 1: New Mexico Lobos win by 3 or more points
In this case:
- Bet 1: Wins at odds of +178.
- Bet 2: Loses.
Calculations:
Convert American odds to decimal odds:
- +178 odds: (178/100) + 1 = 2.78
Bet 1 payout: $418.41 x 2.78 = $1,163.18
Total return: $1,163.18
Net profit: $1,163.18 - $1,000 = $163.18
Scenario 2: New Mexico Lobos win by less than 3 points or Colorado State Rams win
In this case:
- Bet 1: Loses.
- Bet 2: Wins at odds of +100.
Calculations:
Convert American odds to decimal odds:
- +100 odds: (100/100) + 1 = 2.00
Bet 2 payout: $581.59 x 2.00 = $1,163.18
Total return: $1,163.18
Net profit: $1,163.18 - $1,000 = $163.18
Outcome Analysis:
- In both scenarios, the bettor stands to gain a net profit of $163.18.
- The bets cover all possible outcomes, ensuring a positive return.
Conclusion
This analysis demonstrates a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the sports betting market, specifically in college football alternate spreads. By placing the two outlined bets, there is a calculated net profit of $163.18 regardless of the game's outcome. This is achieved through careful calculation and placement of opposing bets with favorable odds.
However, it is essential to consider factors such as possible changes in odds, betting limits, and terms and conditions set by the bookmakers. Additionally, since the event date is over a year away, there is a possibility of unforeseen circumstances that could affect the bets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always ensure compliance with local laws and regulations, and consider seeking advice from a professional before engaging in sports betting activities.