Kings vs Pistons First Half Points Arbitrage
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Sacramento Kings and the Detroit Pistons, scheduled for December 26, 2024, at 10:10 PM. This opportunity involves the alternate total points in the first half market, focusing on a total points line of 114.5.
Analysis
Two different bookmakers are offering varying odds on the same event, which may present an arbitrage scenario. Below are the details of the bets:
Bet 1 Details:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Bet Type: Over 114.5 points in the first half
- Odds: -155 (American odds)
- Stake: $631.56
Bet 2 Details:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Bet Type: Under 114.5 points in the first half
- Odds: +182 (American odds)
- Stake: $368.44
To facilitate the analysis, the American odds are converted to decimal odds:
Bet 1 Decimal Odds:
- Calculation: 1 + (100 / 155) = 1.6452
Bet 2 Decimal Odds:
- Calculation: 1 + (182 / 100) = 2.82
The total stake across both bets amounts to $1,000 ($631.56 + $368.44).
Discussion
Considering both bets, there are two possible outcomes:
Scenario 1: The first half total points exceed 114.5.
- Return from Bet 1: $631.56 × 1.6452 = $1,039.99
- Profit: $1,039.99 - $1,000 = $39.99
Scenario 2: The first half total points are under 114.5.
- Return from Bet 2: $368.44 × 2.82 = $1,039.99
- Profit: $1,039.99 - $1,000 = $39.99
In both scenarios, the potential return is approximately $1,039.99, indicating a possible profit of $39.99, which equates to a 3.999% return on the total stake.
To assess the viability of this arbitrage opportunity, the implied probabilities are calculated:
Bet 1 Implied Probability:
- Calculation: 155 / (155 + 100) = 60.78%
Bet 2 Implied Probability:
- Calculation: 100 / (182 + 100) = 35.46%
Total Implied Probability:
- 60.78% + 35.46% = 96.24%
The total implied probability is less than 100%, suggesting that an arbitrage opportunity may exist between these two bets.
Conclusion
The discrepancy in odds offered by BetMGM and FanDuel for the same market in the Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons game highlights a potential arbitrage opportunity. By analyzing the odds and calculating the stakes accordingly, bettors might find a way to capitalize on this situation. However, it's important to consider all factors and conduct thorough research before making any betting decisions.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Always gamble responsibly and ensure compliance with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.