Juwan Johnson's Receptions Bet Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 0.7%)
(ROI: 0.7%) Arbitrage opportunity identified for NFL game on Jan 5, 2025. Betting on Juwan Johnson's receptions: Under 3.5 at DraftKings (+105), Over 3.5 at FanDuel (-102). Total stake $1000, potential $6.49 profit.
Introduction
A new potential arbitrage opportunity has been identified in the sports betting market for the upcoming NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints on January 5, 2025, at 8:03 PM. The focus of this opportunity is on player Juwan Johnson's total receptions.
Analysis
The arbitrage involves placing two opposing bets on the same market but with different bookmakers due to a discrepancy in odds.
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Player Receptions
- Outcome: Under 3.5 Receptions
- Odds: +105 (Decimal Odds: 2.05)
- Stake: $491.36
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Player Receptions
- Outcome: Over 3.5 Receptions
- Odds: -102 (Decimal Odds: 1.9804)
- Stake: $508.64
The total amount staked across both bets is $1,000. The decimal odds have been calculated from the American odds for precision in computations.
Implied Probabilities:
- Bet 1 Probability: 1 / 2.05 ≈ 48.78%
- Bet 2 Probability: 1 / 1.9804 ≈ 50.49%
- Combined Probability: 48.78% + 50.49% ≈ 99.27%
The combined implied probability is less than 100%, indicating a theoretical arbitrage opportunity in this market.
Discussion
The identified opportunity arises from the difference in odds offered by DraftKings and FanDuel on the same player prop market. By placing bets on both the over and under outcomes of Juwan Johnson's receptions, it is possible to cover all potential results of this specific market.
Potential Returns:
- If Bet 1 wins (Under 3.5 Receptions):
- Return: $491.36 x 2.05 = $1,006.49
- Profit: $1,006.49 - $1,000 = $6.49
- If Bet 2 wins (Over 3.5 Receptions):
- Return: $508.64 x 1.9804 ≈ $1,006.49
- Profit: $1,006.49 - $1,000 = $6.49
In both scenarios, the total return is approximately $1,006.49, leading to a net profit of $6.49 regardless of the outcome. This is based on the assumption that both bets are accepted and settled according to the standard terms.
Considerations:
- Timing: Odds can change rapidly, so simultaneous placement of both bets is essential to lock in the specified odds.
- Bookmaker Terms: Each bookmaker may have different rules regarding player prop bets, including what happens if the player does not participate or the game is postponed.
- Betting Limits: There may be maximum stake limits that could affect the ability to place the desired amount on each bet.
- External Factors: Player injuries, team strategy changes, or unexpected events could influence the market.
Conclusion
The discrepancy in odds between the two bookmakers presents an opportunity for an arbitrage bet in the sports betting market. By analyzing the odds and understanding the associated factors such as bookmaker terms and market conditions, individuals interested in sports betting may consider this situation within their own risk assessment frameworks.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice or a recommendation to engage in any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should make decisions based on their own evaluations and in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.