Jack Campbell Assist Bet Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 2.0%)
(ROI: 2.0%) Arbitrage opportunity identified for NFL game: Jack Campbell's assists. DraftKings has odds on under 3.5 assists (-120), BetMGM on over 3.5 assists (+130). Total implied probability is 98.03%, indicating potential profit.
Introduction
A potential arbitrage opportunity has emerged in the sports betting market concerning player assists for Jack Campbell in the upcoming NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings on January 6, 2025. Two different bookmakers are offering opposing odds on whether Campbell will achieve over or under 3.5 assists during the game. This situation presents an interesting case for analysis within the realm of sports betting and arbitrage betting.
Analysis
Two bets have been identified:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: DraftKings
- Market: Player Assists (Under)
- Participant: Jack Campbell
- Line: Under 3.5 assists
- Odds: -120 (American odds)
- Stake: $556.45
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Player Assists (Over)
- Participant: Jack Campbell
- Line: Over 3.5 assists
- Odds: +130 (American odds)
- Stake: $443.55
To evaluate this opportunity, it is important to convert the American odds to decimal odds:
- For Bet 1 (-120): Decimal Odds = 1 + (100 / 120) = 1.8333
- For Bet 2 (+130): Decimal Odds = 1 + (130 / 100) = 2.30
The implied probabilities are calculated as follows:
- Bet 1: 1 / 1.8333 = 54.55%
- Bet 2: 1 / 2.30 = 43.48%
The total implied probability is 54.55% + 43.48% = 98.03%, which is less than 100%, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.
Discussion
This scenario suggests that by placing these two bets, there is a possibility of securing a profit regardless of the outcome of the game. The calculations show that the total return from either bet would be approximately $1,020, against a total stake of $1,000, potentially yielding a $20 profit.
However, several factors need careful consideration:
Market Consistency: Both bets must pertain to the exact same market and conditions. It's essential to verify that both bookmakers have identical definitions and rules concerning player assists.
Bookmaker Terms: Different bookmakers may have varying rules regarding cancellations, voided bets, and statistical adjustments. Reviewing the terms and conditions is crucial to ensure alignment.
Bet Placement Timing: Placing both bets simultaneously is important to mitigate the risk of odds changing or one bet being rejected.
Player Participation: Confirming that Jack Campbell is expected to play is vital, as his absence could void the bets or alter the conditions.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a potential arbitrage opportunity within the sports betting market for Jack Campbell's assists in the upcoming NFL game. By carefully evaluating and verifying all factors, including bookmaker rules and market conditions, bettors might find value in this situation. It highlights the importance of thorough due diligence in arbitrage betting to ensure that opportunities are valid and align with personal risk assessments.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Individuals should conduct their own research and consider their own circumstances before making any betting decisions.