Imbalanced Betting Strategy on Navy vs. Oklahoma NCAAF Game
Arbitrage Betting Analysis: Navy Midshipmen vs. Oklahoma Sooners
The upcoming NCAAF game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Oklahoma Sooners on December 27, 2024, has presented an interesting betting scenario. This memo provides a detailed analysis of the potential arbitrage opportunity based on the provided betting data.
Analysis of the Betting Data
Event Details:
- Home Team: Navy Midshipmen
- Away Team: Oklahoma Sooners
- League: NCAAF (College Football)
- Event Date: December 27, 2024
Betting Options:
Bet 1:
- Bookmaker: FanDuel
- Market: Alternate Spread
- Selection: Navy Midshipmen +14.5
- Odds: +100
- Stake: $512.20
Bet 2:
- Bookmaker: BetMGM
- Market: Alternate Spread
- Selection: Oklahoma Sooners -14.5
- Odds: -110
- Stake: $487.80
Understanding the Bets:
- Navy Midshipmen +14.5: This bet wins if Navy wins the game or loses by 14 points or fewer.
- Oklahoma Sooners -14.5: This bet wins if Oklahoma wins by 15 points or more.
Detailed Outcome Scenarios
Scenario 1: Navy Covers the Spread (+14.5)
- Navy wins or loses by 14 points or fewer.
- Bet 1 Result: Wins
- Bet 2 Result: Loses
- Potential Profit from Bet 1: Calculated at +100 odds, the return is $512.20 x 2.00 = $1,024.40.
- Net Profit: $1,024.40 - $512.20 (stake for Bet 1) - $487.80 (stake for Bet 2) = $24.40.
Scenario 2: Oklahoma Covers the Spread (-14.5)
- Oklahoma wins by 15 points or more.
- Bet 1 Result: Loses
- Bet 2 Result: Wins
- Potential Profit from Bet 2: At -110 odds, the profit is ($487.80 / 1.9091) x 1.9091 - $487.80 = $443.45.
- Net Loss: $443.45 (profit from Bet 2) - $512.20 (stake for Bet 1) = -$68.75.
Discussion of Potential Outcomes
The analysis indicates that the betting strategy does not result in a guaranteed profit. In Scenario 1, there is a modest profit of $24.40 if Navy covers the spread. In Scenario 2, there is a larger loss of $68.75 if Oklahoma covers the spread. The asymmetry in potential outcomes introduces risk, deviating from the principles of traditional arbitrage betting, which aims for a risk-free profit regardless of the event outcome.
Factors Contributing to the Imbalance:
- Odds Disparity: The difference in odds (+100 vs. -110) affects the potential returns.
- Stake Distribution: Equal or proportionate stakes do not neutralize the risk due to the odds.
- Mutually Exclusive Outcomes: Only one of the bets can win, leading to an inevitable loss of one of the stakes.
Conclusion
Based on the provided data, the betting strategy does not constitute a risk-free arbitrage opportunity. The potential for loss exists, and the possible profit does not offset the risk adequately. It is essential to recognize that true arbitrage betting in sports requires covering all possible outcomes in a manner that guarantees a profit, which is not achieved in this scenario.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to engage in sports betting. Betting involves risk, and individuals should assess their risk tolerance and consult with a professional before making any betting decisions.