Hawks vs Heat First Half Points Arbitrage Opportunity (ROI: 11.1%)
Introduction
We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. This opportunity involves betting on the Alternate Team Totals for the first half (H1) of the game, specifically focusing on the Atlanta Hawks scoring over or under 62.5 points.
Analysis
In this arbitrage scenario, two bets are placed on opposite outcomes with different bookmakers:
Bet 1: Placed with DraftKings on the Atlanta Hawks scoring over 62.5 points in the first half at odds of +500 with a stake of $185.19.
Bet 2: Placed with BetMGM on the Atlanta Hawks scoring under 62.5 points in the first half at odds of -275 with a stake of $814.81.
The total amount staked is $1,000 ($185.19 + $814.81).
To evaluate the potential payouts, we convert the American odds to decimal odds:
- For Bet 1 (+500): Decimal odds = (500 + 100) / 100 = 6.00.
- For Bet 2 (-275): Decimal odds = (100 + 275) / 275 ≈ 1.3636.
Potential Payouts and Profits:
If the Hawks score over 62.5 points:
- Bet 1 wins: Payout = $185.19 × 6.00 = $1,111.14. Profit = $1,111.14 - $185.19 = $925.95.
- Bet 2 loses: Loss = $814.81.
- Net Profit = $925.95 - $814.81 = $111.14.
If the Hawks score under 62.5 points:
- Bet 2 wins: Profit = ($814.81 × 100) / 275 ≈ $296.29. Payout = $814.81 + $296.29 = $1,111.10.
- Bet 1 loses: Loss = $185.19.
- Net Profit = $296.29 - $185.19 = $111.10.
The net profit in both cases is approximately $111, resulting in a Return on Investment (ROI) of about 11.11%.
Discussion
This arbitrage opportunity arises because the combined implied probability of both bets is less than 100%, indicating a potential for a risk-free profit. The implied probabilities are calculated as follows:
- Bet 1 (+500): Implied Probability = 100 / (500 + 100) = 16.67%.
- Bet 2 (-275): Implied Probability = 275 / (275 + 100) = 73.33%.
- Combined Implied Probability = 16.67% + 73.33% = 90%.
This suggests that the market has a 10% discrepancy that can be considered for arbitrage betting. It is essential to note that both bets cover all possible outcomes for this specific market in the first half of the game.
Several factors should be carefully evaluated:
- Odds Fluctuations: Odds may change rapidly, affecting the viability of the arbitrage opportunity. Placing both bets promptly is crucial.
- Market Consistency: Ensure both bets are on identical markets with the same terms and conditions to avoid discrepancies in settlement.
- Bookmaker Policies: Review the rules and regulations of both DraftKings and BetMGM, as policies regarding arbitrage betting and market settlement can vary.
- Bet Acceptance: There is a possibility that one of the bets may not be accepted or could be limited by the bookmaker.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates a valid arbitrage opportunity with a potential profit of approximately $111, regardless of the game's outcome in the first half. By simultaneously placing the specified bets with DraftKings and BetMGM, the calculated ROI is around 11.11%. This opportunity exists due to the discrepancy in odds offered by the two bookmakers on the same market.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or an endorsement of any betting activity. Sports betting involves risk, and individuals should carefully consider their decisions and consult with a professional advisor if necessary.