By René Hunt in NBA — 28 Dec 2024

Hawks vs Heat Arbitrage Betting Odds Analysis (ROI: 13.9%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage betting opportunity in the upcoming NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. The focus is on the First Half Alternate Team Total Points market for the Atlanta Hawks, with a point total line set at 53.5 points. Two differing odds from reputable bookmakers present a scenario that merits detailed analysis.

Detailed Analysis

In the Alternate Team Totals for the First Half market, we observe the following odds:

Over 53.5 Points at DraftKings with odds of -130 (implied probability: 56.52%). Stake: $643.96.
Under 53.5 Points at BetMGM with odds of +220 (implied probability: 31.25%). Stake: $356.04.

The total amount wagered across both bets is $1,000. The potential returns are calculated as follows:

If Over 53.5 Points Hits: Return from DraftKings bet is $643.96 * (1 + (100/130)) = $1,138.55.
If Under 53.5 Points Hits: Return from BetMGM bet is $356.04 * (1 + (220/100)) = $1,139.33.

In both scenarios, the return exceeds the total stake, indicating a potential arbitrage opportunity.

Discussion of Potential Outcomes

Analyzing the two possible outcomes:

Atlanta Hawks Score Over 53.5 Points in the First Half:
- DraftKings Bet Wins: The bettor receives $1,138.55.
- BetMGM Bet Loses: The stake of $356.04 is lost.
- Net Profit: $1,138.55 (return) - $1,000 (total stakes) = $138.55.
Atlanta Hawks Score Under 53.5 Points in the First Half:
- BetMGM Bet Wins: The bettor receives $1,139.33.
- DraftKings Bet Loses: The stake of $643.96 is lost.
- Net Profit: $1,139.33 (return) - $1,000 (total stakes) = $139.33.

In both cases, the bettor stands to make a net profit of approximately $138 to $139, regardless of the game's outcome.

Implications and Considerations

This scenario presents a textbook example of arbitrage betting, where discrepancies in odds between two bookmakers create a risk-free profit opportunity. However, several factors should be carefully considered:

Market Consistency: Ensure that both bets are on the exact same market and conditions, specifically the First Half Alternate Team Total Points for the Atlanta Hawks at 53.5 points.
Bookmaker Rules: Verify that both DraftKings and BetMGM have the same settlement rules for this market, particularly regarding overtime, cancellations, or adjustments.
Odds Confirmation: Odds are subject to change. Confirm that the odds are locked in at the time of placing the bets to maintain the arbitrage opportunity.
Stake Limits: Check for any stake limits or restrictions that may affect the ability to place the desired amounts on each bet.
Legal and Regulatory Compliance: Ensure that engaging in arbitrage betting complies with local laws and regulations in your jurisdiction.
Bookmaker Policies: Be aware of each bookmaker's terms of service, as some may have policies against arbitrage betting practices.

Conclusion

The identified opportunity appears to present a potential for a guaranteed profit through arbitrage betting on the Atlanta Hawks' first-half point total. By carefully placing the specified bets with DraftKings and BetMGM, a bettor could secure a profit of approximately $138 to $139, irrespective of the game's outcome. It is crucial to thoroughly verify all details, including odds, market conditions, and bookmaker rules, before proceeding.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Engaging in sports betting involves risks, and individuals should exercise due diligence and consult with professional advisors where appropriate. The information presented is accurate to the best of our knowledge at the time of writing but is subject to change.