Hawks vs. Heat Arbitrage Alert December 2024 (ROI: 9.6%)
Introduction
An interesting development has emerged in the sports betting arena, specifically in the NBA matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat scheduled for December 28, 2024, at 3:10 PM. Two distinct bets have been identified across different bookmakers, presenting a potential arbitrage opportunity in the alternate spreads market.
Analysis
In the first bet, DraftKings offers odds on the Atlanta Hawks at an alternate spread of -7.5 with odds of +150. This means that for a stake of $438.50, the potential return is calculated based on these favorable odds if the Hawks win by more than 7.5 points.
The second bet is available on BetMGM, offering the Miami Heat at an alternate spread of +7.5 with odds of -105. With a stake of $561.50, this bet yields a return if the Heat win the game outright or lose by fewer than 7.5 points.
Calculating Potential Returns:
Bet 1 (Atlanta Hawks -7.5 at +150):
Stake: $438.50
Odds: +150 (Decimal Odds: 2.50)
Potential Return: $438.50 x 2.50 = $1,096.25
Bet 2 (Miami Heat +7.5 at -105):
Stake: $561.50
Odds: -105 (Decimal Odds: 1.95238)
Potential Return: $561.50 x 1.95238 = $1,096.25
Discussion
The combined stakes for both bets total $1,000. The possible outcomes of the game and their implications are as follows:
Scenario 1: Atlanta Hawks win by 8 or more points
- Bet 1 wins, returning $1,096.25.
- Bet 2 loses, with a loss of $561.50.
- Net Profit: $1,096.25 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $96.25.
Scenario 2: Miami Heat win or lose by 7 points or fewer
- Bet 2 wins, returning $1,096.25.
- Bet 1 loses, with a loss of $438.50.
- Net Profit: $1,096.25 - $1,000 (total stakes) = $96.25.
In both scenarios, the bettor receives a total return of $1,096.25 against a total stake of $1,000, resulting in a net profit of $96.25. This situation illustrates an arbitrage opportunity in sports betting, where a profit is secured regardless of the game's outcome.
Conclusion
The analysis indicates that the identified bets on the NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat create a condition where a net profit of $96.25 could be realized, independent of the game's result. By strategically placing bets on alternate spreads with varying odds at different bookmakers, an arbitrage position is potentially established.
Disclaimer
This analysis is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should ensure compliance with all legal and regulatory requirements in their jurisdiction before engaging in any betting activities. No guarantees are made regarding the profitability or outcome of any bets discussed.