Guaranteed Profit Opportunity: Bruins vs. Bulldogs Arbitrage (ROI: 10.0%)

Introduction

We have identified a potential arbitrage opportunity in the sports betting market for the upcoming NCAA basketball game between the UCLA Bruins and the Gonzaga Bulldogs on December 28, 2024. This involves leveraging differing odds offered by two bookmakers—FanDuel and DraftKings—to potentially secure a profit regardless of the game's outcome.

Analysis

At FanDuel, the UCLA Bruins are listed with Moneyline odds of -148 (American odds), while DraftKings offers the Gonzaga Bulldogs at +220. Converting these to decimal odds for calculation:

UCLA Bruins (-148): Decimal odds = 1 + (100 / 148) ≈ 1.6757.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+220): Decimal odds = 1 + (220 / 100) = 3.20.

To explore the arbitrage, consider a total stake of $1,000. The stakes are allocated based on the inverse of the decimal odds:

Stake on UCLA Bruins:
($1,000 × (1 / 1.6757)) ÷ [(1 / 1.6757) + (1 / 3.20)] ≈ $656.32.
Stake on Gonzaga Bulldogs:
$1,000 - $656.32 = $343.68.

Calculating potential returns:

If UCLA Bruins win:
Total return = $656.32 × 1.6757 ≈ $1,099.63.
If Gonzaga Bulldogs win:
Total return = $343.68 × 3.20 = $1,099.78.

Discussion

The analysis indicates that, with these stakes, the returns exceed the total stake regardless of the outcome:

Profit if UCLA wins:
$1,099.63 - $1,000 = $99.63.
Profit if Gonzaga wins:
$1,099.78 - $1,000 = $99.78.

This scenario exemplifies how arbitrage betting can potentially provide a profit by taking advantage of discrepancies in odds between bookmakers. Key considerations include:

• Timing: Odds are subject to change; placing both bets simultaneously minimizes the risk of odds shifting.
• Stake Limits: Bookmakers may have maximum stake limits that could affect the bet sizes.
• Bookmaker Policies: Reviewing the terms and conditions is crucial to ensure compliance and avoid violations related to arbitrage practices.
• Event Validity: Confirming the event details and ensuring the game proceeds as scheduled is important to avoid bet cancellations or voided wagers.

Conclusion

By carefully analyzing the odds and allocating stakes appropriately, there appears to be a potential for profit through arbitrage betting on this game. This approach relies on mathematical calculations and market analysis to mitigate risk across different possible outcomes in sports betting.

Disclaimer

This information is intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or betting advice. Sports betting carries inherent risks, and individuals should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before engaging in any betting activities.